Mean-Field Games are games with a continuum of players that incorporate the time-dimension through a control-theoretic approach. Recently, simpler approaches relying on the Best Reply Strategy have been proposed. They assume that the agents navigate their strategies towards their goal by taking the direction of steepest descent of their cost function (i.e. the opposite of the utility function). In this paper, we explore the link between Mean-Field Games and the Best Reply Strategy approach. This is done by introducing a Model Predictive Control framework, which consists of setting the Mean-Field Game over a short time interval which recedes as time moves on. We show that the Model Predictive Control offers a compromise between a possibly unrealistic Mean-Field Game approach and the sub-optimal Best Reply Strategy.

This paper is concerned with a mean-reversion trading rule. In contrast to most market models treated in the literature, the underlying market is solely determined by a two-state Markov chain. The major advantage of such Markov chain model is its striking simplicity and yet its capability of capturing various market movements. The purpose of this paper is to study an optimal trading rule under such a model. The objective of the problem under consideration is to nd a sequence stopping (buying and selling) times so as to maximize an expected return. Under some suitable conditions, explicit solutions to the associated HJ equations (variational inequalities) are obtained. The optimal stopping times are given in terms of a set of threshold levels. A verication theorem is provided to justify their optimality. Finally, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the results.

This paper is concerned with an optimal strategy for simultaneously trading of a pair of stocks. The idea of pairs trading is to monitor their price movements and compare their relative strength over time. A pairs trade is triggered by their prices divergence and consists of a pair of positions to short the strong stock and to long the weak one. Such a strategy bets on the reversal of their price strengths. From the viewpoint of technical tractability, typical pairs-trading models usually assume a difference of the stock prices satisfies a mean-reversion equation. In this paper, we consider the optimal pairs-trading problem by allowing the stock prices to follow general geometric Brownian motions. The objective is to trade the pairs over time to maximize an overall return with a fixed commission cost for each transaction. The optimal policy is characterized by threshold curves obtained by solving the associated HJB equations. Numerical examples are included to demonstrate the dependence of our trading rules on various parameters and to illustrate how to implement the results in practice.

It is well known that the nonlinear filtering problem has important applications in both military and civil industries. The central problem of nonlinear filtering is to solve the Duncan-Mortensen-Zakai (DMZ) equation in real time and in a memoryless manner. In this paper, we shall extend the algorithm developed previously by S.-T. Yau and the second author to the most general setting of nonlinear filterings, where the explicit time-dependence is in the drift term, observation term, and the variance of the noises could be a matrix of functions of both time and the states. To preserve the off-line virture of the algorithm, necessary modifications are illustrated clearly. Moreover, it is shown rigorously that the approximated solution obtained by the algorithm converges to the real solution in the $L^1$ sense. And the precise error has been estimated. Finally, the numerical simulation support the feasibility and efficiency of our algorithm.

In this paper, we investigate the Hermite spectral method (HSM) to numerically solve the forward Kolmogorov equation (FKE). A useful guideline of choosing the scaling factor of the generalized Hermite functions is given in this paper. It greatly improves the resolution of HSM. The convergence rate of HSM to FKE is analyzed in the suitable function space and has been verified by the numerical simulation. As an important application and our primary motivation to study the HSM to FKE, we work on the implementation of the nonlinear filtering (NLF) problems with a real-time algorithm developed by S.-T. Yau and the second author in 2008. The HSM to FKE is served as the off-line computation in this algorithm. The translating factor of the generalized Hermite functions and the moving-window technique are introduced to deal with the drifting of the posterior conditional density function of the states in the on-line experiments. Two numerical experiments of NLF problems are carried out to illustrate the feasibility of our algorithm. Moreover, our algorithm surpasses the particle filters as a real-time solver to NLF.