No abstract uploaded!

Motivated by the sampling problems and heterogeneity issues common in high-dimensional big datasets, we consider a class of discordant additive index models. We propose method of moments based procedures for estimating the indices of such discordant additive index models in both low and high-dimensional settings. Our estimators are based on factorizing certain moment tensors and are also applicable in the overcomplete setting, where the number of indices is more than the dimensionality of the datasets. Furthermore, we provide rates of convergence of our estimator in both high and low-dimensional setting. Establishing such results requires deriving tensor operator norm concentration inequalities that might be of independent interest. Finally, we provide simulation results supporting our theory. Our contributions extend the applicability of tensor methods for novel models in addition to making progress on understanding theoretical properties of such tensor methods.

In an effort to capture the time variation on the instantaneous return and volatility functions, a family of time-dependent diffusion processes is introduced to model the term structure dynamics. This allows one to examine how the instantaneous return and price volatility change over time and price level. Nonparametric techniques, based on kernel regression, are used to estimate the time-varying coefficient functions in the drift and diffusion. The newly proposed semiparametric model includes most of the well-known short-term interest rate models, such as those proposed by Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (1985) and Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (1992). It can be used to test the goodness-of-fit of these famous time-homogeneous short rate models. The newly proposed method complements the time-homogeneous nonparametric estimation techniques of Stanton (1997) and Fan and Yao (1998), and is shown through

In this paper we introduce an appealing nonparametric method for estimating the mean regression function. The proposed method combines the ideas of local linear smoothers and variable bandwidth. Hence, it also inherits the advantages of both approaches. We give expressions for the conditional MSE and MISE of the estimator. Minimization of the MISE leads to an explicit formula for an optimal choice of the variable bandwidth. Moreover, the merits of considering a variable bandwidth are discussed. In addition, we show that the estimator does not have boundary effects, and hence does not require modifications at the boundary. The performance of a corresponding plug-in estimator is investigated. Simulations illustrate the proposed estimation method.

Several large volatility matrix estimation procedures have been recently developed for factor-based It processes whose integrated volatility matrix consists of low-rank and sparse matrices. Their performance depends on the accuracy of input volatility matrix estimators. When estimating co-volatilities based on high-frequency data, one of the crucial challenges is non-synchronization for illiquid assets, which makes their co-volatility estimators inaccurate. In this paper, we study how to estimate the large integrated volatility matrix without using co-volatilities of illiquid assets. Specifically, we pretend that the co-volatilities for illiquid assets are missing, and estimate the low-rank matrix using a matrix completion scheme with a structured missing pattern. To further regularize the sparse volatility matrix, we employ the principal orthogonal complement thresholding method (POET). We also investigate the asymptotic

Principal component analysis (PCA) is fundamental to statistical machine learning. It extracts latent principal factors that contribute to the most variation of the data. When data are stored across multiple machines, however, communication cost can prohibit the computation of PCA in a central location and distributed algorithms for PCA are thus needed. This paper proposes and studies a distributed PCA algorithm: each node machine computes the top K eigenvectors and transmits them to the central server; the central server then aggregates the information from all the node machines and conducts a PCA based on the aggregated information. We investigate the bias and variance for the resulting distributed estimator of the top K eigenvectors. In particular, we show that for distributions with symmetric innovation, the empirical top eigenspaces are unbiased, and hence the distributed PCA is unbiased. We derive the

Varying-coefficient partially linear models are frequently used in statistical modelling, but their estimation and inference have not been systematically studied. This paper proposes a profile least-squares technique for estimating the parametric component and studies the asymptotic normality of the profile least-squares estimator. The main focus is the examination of whether the generalized likelihood technique developed by Fan et al. is applicable to the testing problem for the parametric component of semiparametric models. We introduce the profile likelihood ratio test and demonstrate that it follows an asymptotically 2 distribution under the null hypothesis. This not only unveils a new Wilks type of phenomenon, but also provides a simple and useful method for semiparametric inferences. In addition, the Wald statistic for semiparametric models is introduced and demonstrated to possess a sampling property similar

Community detection is a fundamental problem in social network analysis. It is desirable to have fast community detection algorithm that applicable to large-scale networks we see today and also have reliable community detection results. This paper proposes Spectral Clustering On Ratios-of-eigenvectors (SCORE) as such an algorithm. The algorithm is fast in computation, is applicable to real large networks, and is competitive in real data performance when applied to some representative data sets in this area. We study the algorithm with the Degree-Corrected Block Model (DCBM). Compare to most works in this area that focus on the much narrower Block Models, our analysis is more difficult and requires new techniques. The novelty of our algorithm lies in that it uses entry-wise ratios between leading eigenvectors of the adjacency to reduce a seemingly hard problem to a problem that is very much tractable.

Sure screening technique has been considered as a powerful tool to handle the ultrahigh dimensional variable selection problems, where the dimensionality p and the sample size n can satisfy the NP dimensionality logp =O(na) for some a>0[J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B. Stat. Methodol. 70 (2008) 849–911]. The current paper aims to simultaneously tackle the “universality” and “effectiveness” of sure screening procedures. For the “universality,” we develop a general and unified framework for nonparametric screening methods from a loss function perspective. Consider a loss function to measure the divergence of the response variable and the underlying nonparametric function of covariates. We newly propose a class of loss functions called conditional strictly convex loss, which contains, but is not limited to, negative log likelihood loss from one-parameter exponential families, exponential loss for binary classification and quantile regression loss. The sure screening property and model selection size control will be established within this class of loss functions. For the “effectiveness,” we focus on a goodness-of-fit nonparametric screening (Goffins) method under conditional strictly convex loss. Interestingly, we can achieve a better convergence probability of containing the true model compared with related literature. The superior performance of our proposed method has been further demonstrated by extensive simulation studies and some real scientific data example.

No abstract uploaded!

No abstract uploaded!

Several novel large volatility matrix estimation methods have been developed based on the high-frequency financial data. They often employ the approximate factor model that leads to a low-rank plus sparse structure for the integrated volatility matrix and facilitates estimation of large volatility matrices. However, for predicting future volatility matrices, these nonparametric estimators do not have a dynamic structure to implement. In this paper, we introduce a novel It diffusion process based on the approximate factor models and call it a factor GARCH-It model. We then investigate its properties and propose a quasi-maximum likelihood estimation method for the parameter of the factor GARCH-It model. We also apply it to estimating conditional expected large volatility matrices and establish their asymptotic properties. Simulation studies are conducted to validate the finite sample performance of the proposed

We consider the edge statistics of large dimensional deformed rectangular matrices of the form $Y_t=Y+\sqrt{t}X,$ where $Y$ is a $p \times n$ deterministic signal matrix whose rank is comparable to $n$, $X$ is a $p\times n$ random noise matrix with centered i.i.d. entries with variance $n^{-1}$, and $t>0$ gives the noise level. This model is referred to as the interference-plus-noise matrix in the study of massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) system, which belongs to the category of the so-called signal-plus-noise model. For the case $t=1$, the spectral statistics of this model have been studied to a certain extent in the literature \cite{DOZIER20071099,DOZIER2007678,VLM2012}. In this paper, we study the singular value and singular vector statistics of $Y_t$ around the right-most edge of the singular value spectrum in the harder regime $n^{-2/3}\ll t \ll 1$. This regime is harder than the $t=1$ case, because on one hand, the edge behavior of the empirical spectral distribution (ESD) of $YY^\top$ has a strong effect on the edge statistics of $Y_tY_t^\top$ since $t\ll 1$ is ``small", while on the other hand, the edge statistics of $Y_t$ is also not merely a perturbation of those of $Y$ since $t\gg n^{-2/3}$ is ``large". Under certain regularity assumptions on $Y,$ we prove the edge universality, eigenvalues rigidity and eigenvector delocalization for the matrices $Y_tY_t^\top$ and $Y_t^\top Y_t$. These results can be used to estimate and infer the massive MIMO system. To prove the main results, we analyze the edge behavior of the asymptotic ESD for $Y_tY_t^\top$, and establish some sharp local laws on the resolvent of $Y_tY_t^\top$. These results can be of independent interest, and used as useful inputs for many other problems regarding the spectral statistics of $Y_t$.

We have collected and cleaned two network data sets: Coauthorship and Citation networks for statisticians. The data sets are based on all research papers published in four of the top journals in statistics from 2003 to the first half of 2003 . We analyze the data sets from many different perspectives, focusing on (a) productivity, patterns and trends,(b) centrality and (c) community structures.

Children learn effortlessly by example and exhibit a remarkable capacity of generalization. The field of machine learning, on the other hand, stumbles along clumsily in search of algorithms and methods, but nothing available today comes even close to an average two-year-old toddler. So, modestly, we present some results on one of the main paradigms in machine learningnearest neighbor methods. Rummaging through old data for the closest match seems like a sensible thing to do, and that primitive idea can be formalized and made rigorous. In the field of nonparametric statistics, where one is concerned with the estimation of densities, distribution functions, regression functions, and functionals, the nearest neighbor family of methods was in the limelight from the very beginning and has achieved some level of maturity.

There are few techniques available for testing whether or not a family of parametric times series models fits a set of data reasonably well without serious restrictions on the forms of alternative models. In this paper, we consider generalised likelihood ratio tests of whether or not the spectral density function of a stationary time series admits certain parametric forms. We propose a bias correction method for the generalised likelihood ratio test of Fan et al. (2001). In particular, our methods can be applied to test whether or not a residual series is white noise. Sampling properties of the proposed tests are established. A bootstrap approach is proposed for estimating the null distribution of the test statistics. Simulation studies investigate the accuracy of the proposed bootstrap estimate and compare the power of the various ways of constructing the generalised likelihood ratio tests as well as some classic methods like

The effect of errors in variables in nonparametric regression estimation is examined. To account for errors in covariates, deconvolution is involved in the construction of a new class of kernel estimators. It is shown that optimal local and global rates of convergence of these kernel estimators can be characterized by the tail behavior of the characteristic function of the error distribution. In fact, there are two types of rates of convergence according to whether the error is ordinary smooth or super smooth. It is also shown that these results hold uniformly over a class of joint distributions of the response and the covariate, which is rich enough for many practical applications. Furthermore, to achieve optimality, we show that the convergence rates of all possible estimators have a lower bound possessed by the kernel estimators.

Using locally polynomial regression, we develop nonparametric estimators for the conditional density function and its square root, and their partial derivatives. Two measures of sensitivity to initial conditions in nonlinear stochastic dynamic systems are proposed, one of which relates Fisher information with initial-value sensitivity in dynamical systems. We propose estimators for these, and show asymptotic normality for one of them. We further propose a simple method for choosing the bandwidth. The methods are illustrated by simulation of two well-known models in dynamical systems.

Folded concave penalization methods have been shown to enjoy the strong oracle property for high-dimensional sparse estimation. However, a folded concave penalization problem usually has multiple local solutions and the oracle property is established only for one of the unknown local solutions. A challenging fundamental issue still remains that it is not clear whether the local optimum computed by a given optimization algorithm possesses those nice theoretical properties. To close this important theoretical gap in over a decade, we provide a unified theory to show explicitly how to obtain the oracle solution via the local linear approximation algorithm. For a folded concave penalized estimation problem, we show that as long as the problem is localizable and the oracle estimator is well behaved, we can obtain the oracle estimator by using the one-step local linear approximation. In addition, once the oracle estimator is obtained, the local linear approximation algorithm converges, namely, it produces the same estimator in the next iteration. The general theory is demonstrated by using four classical sparse estimation problems, that is, sparse linear regression, sparse logistic regression, sparse precision matrix estimation, and sparse quantile regression.

No abstract uploaded!

A variable screening procedure via correlation learning was proposed by Fan and Lv (2008) to reduce dimensionality in sparse ultra-high-dimensional models. Even when the true model is linear, the marginal regression can be highly nonlinear. To address this issue, we further extend the correlation learning to marginal nonparametric learning. Our nonparametric independence screening (NIS) is a specific type of sure independence screening. We propose several closely related variable screening procedures. We show that with general nonparametric models, under some mild technical conditions, the proposed independence screening methods have a sure screening property. The extent to which the dimensionality can be reduced by independence screening is also explicitly quantified. As a methodological extension, we also propose a data-driven thresholding and an iterative nonparametric independence

A class of variable selection procedures for parametric models via nonconcave penalized likelihood was proposed in Fan and Li (2001a). It has been shown there that the resulting procedures perform as well as if the subset of significant variables were known in advance. Such a property is called an oracle property. The proposed procedures were illustrated in the context of linear regression, robust linear regression and generalized linear models. In this paper, the nonconcave penalized likelihood approach is extended further to the Cox proportional hazards model and the Cox proportional hazards frailty model, two commonly used semi-parametric models in survival analysis. As a result, new variable selection procedures for these two commonly-used models are proposed. It is demonstrated how the rates of convergence depend on the regularization parameter in the penalty function. Further, with a proper choice of

Deconvolution problems arise in a variety of situations in statistics. An interesting problem is to estimate the density f of a random variable X based on n i.i.d. observations from Y = X + , where is a measurement error with a known distribution. In this paper, the effect of errors in variables of nonparametric deconvolution is examined. Insights are gained by showing that the difficulty of deconvolution depends on the smoothness of error distributions: the smoother, the harder. In fact, there are two types of optimal rates of convergence according to whether the error distribution is ordinary smooth or supersmooth. It is shown that optimal rates of convergence can be achieved by deconvolution kernel density estimators.

This article introduces the large portfolio selection using gross-exposure constraints. It shows that with gross-exposure constraints, the empirically selected optimal portfolios based on estimated covariance matrices have similar performance to the theoretical optimal ones and there is no error accumulation effect from estimation of vast covariance matrices. This gives theoretical justification to the empirical results by Jagannathan and Ma. It also shows that the no-short-sale portfolio can be improved by allowing some short positions. The applications to portfolio selection, tracking, and improvements are also addressed. The utility of our new approach is illustrated by simulation and empirical studies on the 100 FamaFrench industrial portfolios and the 600 stocks randomly selected from Russell 3000.

We propose a novel Rayleigh quotient based sparse quadratic dimension reduction methodnamed QUADRO (Qua dratic D imension R eduction via Rayleigh O ptimization)for analyzing high-dimensional data. Unlike in the linear setting where Rayleigh quotient optimization coincides with classification, these two problems are very different under nonlinear settings. In this paper, we clarify this difference and show that Rayleigh quotient optimization may be of independent scientific interests. One major challenge of Rayleigh quotient optimization is that the variance of quadratic statistics involves all fourth cross-moments of predictors, which are infeasible to compute for high-dimensional applications and may accumulate too many stochastic errors. This issue is resolved by considering a family of elliptical models. Moreover, for heavy-tail distributions, robust estimates of mean vectors and covariance matrices are