Construction of a Probability Model of the Generals’ Skills in the Game “Legends of the Three Kingdoms”

Zhuoxiao Yang Guangzhou No.6 Middle School Sihang Wu Guangzhou No.6 Middle School Sicong Li Guangzhou No.6 Middle School

S.-T. Yau High School Science Awarded Papers mathscidoc:1608.35139

Dongrun-Yau Science Award, 2013
The aim of this study is to figure out the optimization of survival probability of the generals in the card game "Legends of the Three Kingdoms". First, based on combinatorics and probability theory, the PASCAL program was performed to analyze the probabilities of success when several popular generals perform their special skills in the game. The results are as follows: Second, seven typical generals, including Zhou Tai, Zhang Jiao, Zhen Ji, Lu Xun, Ma Chao, Xiahou Dun, and Guo Jia, were chosen, and their abilities including attacking and defense were arbitrarily quantified according to a model constructed in the present study. The scores are as follows: Card-drawing Changing Attacking Defense Blood-selling Zhen Ji 5.62 Zhou Tai 1.04 Ma Chao 1.68 Xiahou Dun 1.19 Guo Jia 3.36 Lu Xun 3.55 Zhang Jiao 2.55 The abilities of different generals were sorted, and by comparison with the statistical record online, the reliability of the model was proved. Thus, the irrationality of the game is identified in this study, and we recommend the game designer to modify the abilities of some generals and to obtain an optimized value according to the output of the model, by which the game would be more popular.
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@inproceedings{zhuoxiao2013construction,
  title={Construction of a Probability Model of the Generals’ Skills in the Game “Legends of the Three Kingdoms”},
  author={Zhuoxiao Yang, Sihang Wu, and Sicong Li},
  url={http://archive.ymsc.tsinghua.edu.cn/pacm_paperurl/20160818140525372601232},
  booktitle={Dongrun-Yau Science Award},
  year={2013},
}
Zhuoxiao Yang, Sihang Wu, and Sicong Li. Construction of a Probability Model of the Generals’ Skills in the Game “Legends of the Three Kingdoms”. 2013. In Dongrun-Yau Science Award. http://archive.ymsc.tsinghua.edu.cn/pacm_paperurl/20160818140525372601232.
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