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Omicron, the latest SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern (VOC), first appeared in Africa in November 2021. At present, the question of whether a new VOC will out-compete the currently predominant variant is important for governments seeking to determine if current surveillance strategies and responses are appropriate and reasonable. Based on both virus genomes and daily-confirmed cases, we compare the additive differences in growth rates and reproductive numbers (R_0) between VOCs and their predominant variants through a Bayesian framework and phylo-dynamics analysis. Faced with different variants, we evaluate the effects of current policies and vaccinations against VOCs and predominant variants. The model also predicts the date on which a VOC may become dominant based on simulation and real data in the early stage. The results suggest that the overall additive difference in growth rates of B.1.617.2 and predominant variants was 0.44 (95% confidence interval, 95% CI: −0.38, 1.25) in February 2021, and that the VOC had a relatively high R_0. The additive difference in the growth rate of BA.1 in the United Kingdom was 6.82 times the difference between Delta and Alpha, and the model successfully predicted the dominating process of Alpha, Delta and Omicron. Current vaccination strategies remain similarly effective against Delta compared to the previous variants. Our model proposes a reliable Bayesian framework to predict the spread trends of VOCs based on early-stage data, and evaluates the effects of public health policies, which may help us better prepare for the upcoming Omicron variant, which is now spreading at an unprecedented speed.

Forest above-ground biomass (AGB) can be estimated based on light detection and ranging (LiDAR) point clouds. This paper introduces an accurate and detailed quantitative structure model (AdQSM), which can estimate the AGB of large tropical trees. AdQSM is based on the reconstruction of 3D tree models from terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) point clouds. It represents a tree as a set of closed and complete convex polyhedra. We use AdQSM to model 29 trees of various species (total 18 species) scanned by TLS from three study sites (the dense tropical forests of Peru, Indonesia, and Guyana). The destructively sampled tree geometry measurement data is used as reference values to evaluate the accuracy of diameter at breast height (DBH), tree height, tree volume, branch volume, and AGB estimated from AdQSM. After AdQSM reconstructs the structure and volume of each tree, AGB is derived by combining the wood density of the specific tree species from destructive sampling. The AGB estimation from AdQSM and the post-harvest reference measurement data show a satisfying agreement. The coefficient of variation of root mean square error (CV-RMSE) and the concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) are 20.37% and 0.97, respectively. AdQSM provides accurate tree volume estimation, regardless of the characteristics of the tree structure, without major systematic deviations. We compared the accuracy of AdQSM and TreeQSM in modeling the volume of 29 trees. The tree volume from AdQSM is compared with the reference value, and the determination coefficient (R2), relative bias (rBias), and CV-RMSE of tree volume are 0.96, 6.98%, and 22.62%, respectively. The tree volume from TreeQSM is compared with the reference value, and the R2, relative Bias (rBias), and CV-RMSE of tree volume are 0.94, −9.69%, and 23.20%, respectively. The CCCs between the volume estimates based on AdQSM, TreeQSM, and the reference values are 0.97 and 0.96. AdQSM also models the branches in detail. The volume of branches from AdQSM is compared with the destructive measurement reference data. The R2, rBias, and CV-RMSE of the branches volume are 0.97, 12.38%, and 36.86%, respectively. The DBH and height of the harvested trees were used as reference values to test the accuracy of AdQSM’s estimation of DBH and tree height. The R2, rBias, and CV-RMSE of DBH are 0.94, −5.01%, and 9.06%, respectively. The R2, rBias, and CV-RMSE of the tree height were 0.95, 1.88%, and 5.79%, respectively. This paper provides not only a new QSM method for estimating AGB based on TLS point clouds but also the potential for further development and testing of allometric equations.

We propose to combine cepstrum and nonlinear time–frequency (TF) analysis to study multiple component oscillatory signals with time-varying frequency and amplitude and with time-varying non-sinusoidal oscillatory pattern. The concept of cepstrum is applied to eliminate the wave-shape function influence on the TF analysis, and we propose a new algorithm, named de-shape synchrosqueezing transform (deshape SST). The mathematical model, adaptive non-harmonic model, is introduced and the de-shape SST algorithm is theoretically analyzed. In addition to simulated signals, several different physiological, musical and biological signals are analyzed to illustrate the proposed algorithm.

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Data-based detection and quantification of causation in complex, nonlinear dynamical systems is of paramount importance to science, engineering, and beyond. Inspired by the widely used methodology in recent years, the cross-map-based techniques, we develop a general framework to advance towards a comprehensive understanding of dynamical causal mechanisms, which is consistent with the natural interpretation of causality. In particular, instead of measuring the smoothness of the cross-map as conventionally implemented, we define causation through measuring the scaling law for the continuity of the investigated dynamical system directly. The uncovered scaling law enables accurate, reliable, and efficient detection of causation and assessment of its strength in general complex dynamical systems, outperforming those existing representative methods. The continuity scaling-based framework is rigorously established and demonstrated using datasets from model complex systems and the real world.

Persistent homology is constrained to purely topological persistence, while multiscale graphs account only for geometric information. This work introduces persistent spectral theory to create a unified low-dimensional multiscale paradigm for revealing topological persistence and extracting geometric shapes from high-dimensional datasets. For a point-cloud dataset, a filtration procedure is used to generate a sequence of chain complexes and associated families of simplicial complexes and chains, from which we construct persistent combinatorial Laplacian matrices. We show that a full set of topological persistence can be completely recovered from the harmonic persistent spectra, that is, the spectra that have zero eigenvalues, of the persistent combinatorial Laplacian matrices. However, non-harmonic spectra of the Laplacian matrices induced by the filtration offer another powerful tool for data analysis, modeling, and prediction. In this work, fullerene stability is predicted by using both harmonic spectra and non-harmonic persistent spectra, while the latter spectra are successfully devised to analyze the structure of fullerenes and model protein flexibility, which cannot be straightforwardly extracted from the current persistent homology. The proposed method is found to provide excellent predictions of the protein B-factors for which current popular biophysical models break down.

Single-cell (sc)RNA-seq, together with RNA velocity and metabolic labeling, reveals cellular states and transitions at unprecedented resolution. Fully exploiting these data, however, requires kinetic models capable of unveiling governing regulatory functions. Here, we introduce an analytical framework dynamo (https://github.com/aristoteleo/dynamo-release), which infers absolute RNA velocity, reconstructs continuous vector fields that predict cell fates, employs differential geometry to extract underlying regulations, and ultimately predicts optimal reprogramming paths and perturbation outcomes. We highlight dynamo’s power to overcome fundamental limitations of conventional splicing-based RNA velocity analyses to enable accurate velocity estimations on a metabolically labeled human hematopoiesis scRNA-seq dataset. Furthermore, differential geometry analyses reveal mechanisms driving early megakaryocyte appearance and elucidate asymmetrical regulation within the PU.1-GATA1 circuit. Leveraging the least-action-path method, dynamo accurately predicts drivers of numerous hematopoietic transitions. Finally, in silico perturbations predict cell-fate diversions induced by gene perturbations. Dynamo, thus, represents an important step in advancing quantitative and predictive theories of cell-state transitions.

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A comprehensive description of human genomes is essential for understanding human evolution and relationships between modern populations. However, most published literature focuses on local alignment comparison of several genes rather than the complete evolutionary record of individual genomes. Combining with data from the 1,000 Genomes Project, we successfully reconstructed 2,504 individual genomes and propose Divided Natural Vector method to analyze the distribution of nucleotides in the genomes. Comparisons based on autosomes, sex chromosomes and mitochondrial genomes reveal the genetic relationships between populations, and different inheritance pattern leads to different phylogenetic results. Results based on mitochondrial genomes confirm the “out-of-Africa” hypothesis and assert that humans, at least females, most likely originated in eastern Africa. The reconstructed genomes are stored on our server and can be further used for any genome-scale analysis of humans (http://yaulab.math.tsinghua.edu.cn/2022_1000genomesprojectdata/). This project provides the complete genomes of thousands of individuals and lays the groundwork for genome-level analyses of the genetic relationships between populations and the origin of humans.

Zika virus (ZIKV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus. It was first isolated from Uganda in 1947 and has become an emergent event since 2007. However, because of the inconsistency of alignment methods, the evolution of ZIKV remains poorly understood. In this study, we first use the complete protein and an alignment-free method to build a phylogenetic tree of 87 Zika strains in which Asian, East African, and West African lineages are characterized. We also use the NS5 protein to construct the genetic relationship among 44 Zika strains. For the first time, these strains are divided into two clades: African 1 and African 2. This result suggests that ZIKV originates from Africa, then spread to Asia, Pacific islands, and throughout the Americas. We also perform the phylogeny analysis for 53 viruses in genus Flavivirus to which ZIKV belongs using complete proteins. Our conclusion is consistent with the classification by the hosts and transmission vectors.

We construct a virus database called VirusDB (http://yaulab.math.tsinghua.edu.cn/VirusDB/) and an online inquiry system to serve people who are interested in viral classification and prediction. The database stores all viral genomes, their corresponding natural vectors, and the classification information of the single/multiple-segmented viral reference sequences downloaded from National Center for Biotechnology Information. The online inquiry system serves the purpose of computing natural vectors and their distances based on submitted genomes, providing an online interface for accessing and using the database for viral classification and prediction, and back-end processes for automatic and manual updating of database content to synchronize with GenBank. Submitted genomes data in FASTA format will be carried out and the prediction results with 5 closest neighbors and their classifications will be returned by email. Considering the one-to-one correspondence between sequence and natural vector, time efficiency, and high accuracy, natural vector is a significant advance compared with alignment methods, which makes VirusDB a useful database in further research.

Comparing DNA and protein sequence groups plays an important role in biological evolutionary relationship research. Despite many methods available for sequence comparison, only a few can be used for group comparison. In this study, we propose a novel approach using convex hulls. We use statistical information contained within the sequences to represent each sequence as a point in high dimensional space. We find that the points belonging to one biological group are located in a different region of space than points belonging to other biological groups. To be more precise, the convex hull of the points from one group are disjoint from the convex hulls of points from other groups. This finding allows us to do phylogenetic analysis for groups in an efficient way. Five different theorems are presented for checking whether two convex hulls intersect or are disjoint. Test results for datasets related to HRV, HPV, Ebolavirus, PKC and protein phosphatase domains demonstrate that our method performs well and provides a new tool for studying group phylogeny. More significantly, the convex analysis presents a new way to search for sequences belonging to a biological group by examining points within the group’s convex hull.

Analyzing phylogenetic relationships using mathematical methods has always been of importance in bioinformatics. Quantitative research may interpret the raw biological data in a precise way. Multiple Sequence Alignment (MSA) is used frequently to analyze biological evolutions, but is very time-consuming. When the scale of data is large, alignment methods cannot finish calculation in reasonable time. Therefore, we present a new method using moments of cumulative Fourier power spectrum in clustering the DNA sequences. Each sequence is translated into a vector in Euclidean space. Distances between the vectors can reflect the relationships between sequences. The mapping between the spectra and moment vector is one-to-one, which means that no information is lost in the power spectra during the calculation. We cluster and classify several datasets including Influenza A, primates, and human rhinovirus (HRV) datasets to build up the phylogenetic trees. Results show that the new proposed cumulative Fourier power spectrum is much faster and more accurately than MSA and another alignment-free method known as k-mer. The research provides us new insights in the study of phylogeny, evolution, and efficient DNA comparison algorithms for large genomes. The computer programs of the cumulative Fourier power spectrum are available at GitHub (https://github.com/YaulabTsinghua/cumulative-Fourier-power-spectrum).

Laser scanning is an effective tool for acquiring geometric attributes of trees and vegetation, which lays a solid foundation for 3-dimensional tree modelling. Existing studies on tree modelling from laser scanning data are vast. However, some works cannot guarantee sufficient modelling accuracy, while some other works are mainly rule-based and therefore highly depend on user inputs. In this paper, we propose a novel method to accurately and automatically reconstruct detailed 3D tree models from laser scans. We first extract an initial tree skeleton from the input point cloud by establishing a minimum spanning tree using the Dijkstra shortest-path algorithm. Then, the initial tree skeleton is pruned by iteratively removing redundant components. After that, an optimization-based approach is performed to fit a sequence of cylinders to approximate the geometry of the tree branches. Experiments on various types of trees from different data sources demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of our method. The overall fitting error (i.e., the distance between the input points and the output model) is less than 10 cm. The reconstructed tree models can be further applied in the precise estimation of tree attributes, urban landscape visualization, etc. The source code of this work is freely available at https://github.com/tudelft3d/adtree

The free-living SAR11 clade is a globally abundant group of oceanic Alphaproteobacteria, with small genome sizes and rich genomic A+T content. However, the taxonomy of SAR11 has become controversial recently. Some researchers argue that the position of SAR11 is a sister group to Rickettsiales. Other researchers advocate that SAR11 is located within free-living lineages of Alphaproteobacteria. Here, we use the natural vector representation method to identify the evolutionary origin of the SAR11 clade. This alignment-free method does not depend on any model assumptions. With this approach, the correspondence between proteome sequences and their natural vectors is one-to-one. After fixing a set of proteins, each bacterium is represented by a set of vectors. The Hausdorff distance is then used to compute the dissimilarity distance between two bacteria. The phylogenetic tree can be reconstructed based on these distances. Using our method, we systematically analyze four data sets of alphaproteobacterial proteomes in order to reconstruct the phylogeny of Alphaproteobacteria. From this we can see that the phylogenetic position of the SAR11 group is within a group of other free-living lineages of Alphaproteobacteria.

Structures and functions of proteins play various essential roles in biological processes. The functions of newly discovered proteins can be predicted by comparing their structures with that of known functional proteins. Many approaches have been proposed for measuring the protein structure similarity, such as the template-modeling (TM)-score method, GRaphlet (GR)-Align method as well as the commonly used root-mean-square deviation (RMSD) measures. However, the alignment comparisons between the similarity of protein structure cost much time on large dataset, and the accuracy still have room to improve. In this study, we introduce a new three-dimensional (3D) Yau–Hausdorff distance between any two 3D objects. The (3D) Yau–Hausdorff distance can be used in particular to measure the similarity/dissimilarity of two proteins of any size and does not need aligning and super- imposing two structures. We apply structural similarity to study function similarity and perform phylogenetic analysis on several datasets. The results show that (3D) Yau–Hausdorff distance could serve as a more precise and effective method to discover biological relationships between proteins than other methods on structure comparison.

Future state prediction for nonlinear dynamical systems is a challenging task, particularly when only a few time series samples for high-dimensional variables are available from real-world systems. In this work, we propose a model-free framework, named randomly distributed embedding (RDE), to achieve accurate future state prediction based on short-term high-dimensional data. Specifically, from the observed data of high-dimensional variables, the RDE framework randomly generates a sufficient number of low-dimensional “nondelay embeddings” and maps each of them to a “delay embedding,” which is constructed from the data of a to be predicted target variable. Any of these mappings can perform as a low-dimensional weak predictor for future state prediction, and all of such mappings generate a distribution of predicted future states. This distribution actually patches all pieces of association information from various embeddings unbiasedly or biasedly into the whole dynamics of the target variable, which after operated by appropriate estimation strategies, creates a stronger predictor for achieving prediction in a more reliable and robust form. Through applying the RDE framework to data from both representative models and real-world systems, we reveal that a high-dimension feature is no longer an obstacle but a source of information crucial to the accurate prediction for short-term data, even under noise deterioration.

Current methods cannot tell us what the nature of the protein universe is concretely. They are based on different models of amino acid substitution and multiple sequence alignment which is an NP-hard problem and requires manual intervention. Protein structural analysis also gives a direction for mapping the protein universe. Unfortunately, now only a minuscule fraction of proteins' 3-dimensional structures are known. Furthermore, the phylogenetic tree representations are not unique for any existing tree construction methods. Here we develop a novel method to realize the nature of protein universe. We show the protein universe can be realized as a protein space in 60-dimensional Euclidean space using a distance based on a normalized distribution of amino acids. Every protein is in one-to-one correspondence with a point in protein space, where proteins with similar properties stay close together. Thus the distance between two points in protein space represents the biological distance of the corresponding two proteins. We also propose a natural graphical representation for inferring phylogenies. The representation is natural and unique based on the biological distances of proteins in protein space. This will solve the fundamental question of how proteins are distributed in the protein universe.

With sharp increasing in biological sequences, the traditional sequence alignment methods become unsuitable and infeasible. It motivates a surge of fast alignment-free techniques for sequence analysis. Among these methods, many sorts of feature vector methods are established and applied to reconstruction of species phylogeny. The vectors basically consist of some typical numerical features for certain biological problems. The features may come from the primary sequences, secondary or three dimensional structures of macromolecules. In this study, we propose a novel numerical vector based on only primary sequences of organism to build their phylogeny. Three chemical and physical properties of primary sequences: purine, pyrimidine and keto are also incorporated to the vector. Using each property, we convert the nucleotide sequence into a new sequence consisting of only two kinds of letters. Therefore, three sequences are constructed according to the three properties. For each letter of each sequence we calculate the number of the letter, the average position of the letter and the variation of the position of the letter appearing in the sequence. Tested on several datasets related to mammals, viruses and bacteria, this new tool is fast in speed and accurate for inferring the phylogeny of organisms.

The International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses authorizes and organizes the taxonomic classification of viruses. Thus far, the detailed classifications for all viruses are neither complete nor free from dispute. For example, the current missing label rates in GenBank are 12.1% for family label and 30.0% for genus label. Using the proposed Natural Vector representation, all 2,044 single-segment referenced viral genomes in GenBank can be embedded in R^12. Unlike other approaches, this allows us to determine phylogenetic relations for all viruses at any level (e.g., Baltimore class, family, subfamily, genus, and species) in real time. Additionally, the proposed graphical representation for virus phylogeny provides a visualization of the distribution of viruses in R^12. Unlike the commonly used tree visualization methods which suffer from uniqueness and existence problems, our representation always exists and is unique. This approach is successfully used to predict and correct viral classification information, as well as to identify viral origins; e.g. a recent public health threat, the West Nile virus, is closer to the Japanese encephalitis antigenic complex based on our visualization. Based on cross validation results, the accuracy rates of our predictions are as high as 98.2% for Baltimore class labels, 96.6% for family labels, 99.7% for subfamily labels and 97.2% for genus labels.

Next-generation sequencing technology enables the routine detection of bacterial pathogens for clinical diagnostics and genetic research. Whole-genome sequencing has been of importance in the epidemiologic analysis of bacterial pathogens. However, few whole-genome sequencing-based genotyping pipelines are available for practical applications. Here, we present the whole-genome sequencing-based single nucleotide polymorphism(SNP) genotyping method and apply to the evolutionary analysis of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus. The SNP genotyping method calls genome variants using next-generation sequencing reads of whole genomes and calculates the pair-wise Jaccard distances of the genome variants. The method may reveal the high-resolution whole-genome SNP profiles and the structural variants of different isolates of methicillin-resistant S. aureus(MRSA) and methicillin-susceptible S. aureus(MSSA) strains. The phylogenetic analysis of whole genomes and particular regions may monitor and track the evolution and the transmission dynamic of bacterial pathogens. The computer pro- grams of the whole genome sequencing-based SNP genotyping methods are available to the public at https://github. com/ cyinbox/NGS.

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Classification of protein are crucial topics in biology. The number of protein sequences stored in databases increases sharply in the past decade. Traditionally, comparison of protein sequences is usually carried out through multiple sequence alignment methods. However, these methods may be unsuitable for clustering of protein sequences when gene rearrangements occur such as in viral genomes. The computation is also very time-consuming for large datasets with long genomes. In this paper, based on three important bio- chemical properties of amino acids: the hydropathy index, polar requirement and chemical composition of the side chain, we propose a 24 dimensional feature vector describing the composition of amino acids in protein sequences. Our method not only utilizes the chemical properties of amino acids but also counts on their numbers and positions. The results on beta-globin, mammals, and three virus datasets show that this new tool is fast and accurate for classifying proteins and inferring the phylogeny of organisms.

The stochasticity of gene expression is manifested in the fluctuations of mRNA and protein copy numbers within a cell lineage over time. While data of this type can be obtained for many generations, most mathematical models are unsuitable to interpret such data since they assume non-growing cells. Here we develop a theoretical approach that quantitatively links the frequency content of lineage data to subcellular dynamics. We elucidate how the position, height, and width of the peaks in the power spectrum provide a distinctive fingerprint that encodes a wealth of information about mechanisms controlling transcription, translation, replication, degradation, bursting, promoter switching, cell cycle duration, cell division, gene dosage compensation, and cell size homeostasis. Predictions are confirmed by analysis of single-cell Escherichia coli data obtained using fluorescence microscopy. Furthermore, by matching the experimental and theoretical power spectra, we infer the temperature-dependent gene expression parameters, without the need of measurements relating fluorescence intensities to molecule numbers.