A Robust Log-Optimal Strategy and its Application in NYSE

Yifeng Guo Guangdong Experimental High School

S.-T. Yau High School Science Awarded Papers mathscidoc:1608.35135

Dongrun-Yau Science Award, 5, 2013
The log-optimal strategy in gambling and asset allocation problem attempts to maximize the expectation of the logarithmic rate of return but not the gross wealth itself. This strategy has been shown to have long termsuperiority overother strategies in theory. Another remarkable virtue is it allows updating the real-time market information quickly which could increase of the logarithmic rate of return. We will prove these properties ourselves in a simple way. We further consider how to do asset allocation by applying the log-optimal strategy in practice. The distribution function of the returns is usually unknown and need to be estimated from the history in a real world. The estimation error will affect the asset allocation directly, but such effect mayresult in a "butterfly effect" which could bring an investment disaster. Therefore, it is an important issue to answer whether there is logoptimal strategy resisted "butterfly effect". We develop a new log-optimal strategy based on the allocation utility which is a quadratic approximation to the expectation of the logarithmic rate of return. We show that the upper bound of the allocation utility deviation can be controlled by the l_1-norm of portfolio and l_∞-norm of the bias of variance matrix estimator. This turns out that our proposed strategy is robust. We apply our strategy for NYSE data. The results showed that our strategy has high performance in return.
allocation utility, logarithmic rate of return, log-optimal strategy, robustness, asset
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  title={A Robust Log-Optimal Strategy and its Application in NYSE},
  author={Yifeng Guo},
  booktitle={Dongrun-Yau Science Award},
Yifeng Guo. A Robust Log-Optimal Strategy and its Application in NYSE. 2013. Vol. 5. In Dongrun-Yau Science Award. http://archive.ymsc.tsinghua.edu.cn/pacm_paperurl/20160818134210286953227.
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