The Application of the Modified Leslie Model in Predicting the Population Change of Nanjing

Bowen Wang Nanjing Foreign Language School Siqi Chen Nanjing Foreign Language School Jiayu Lou Nanjing Foreign Language School

S.-T. Yau High School Science Awarded Papers mathscidoc:1608.35144

Dongrun-Yau Science Award, 2013
Based on Leslie Matrix, the paper tries to predict the population fluctuation of Nanjing by considering the regional distinction and latest policy impacts, and hereby comes up with four conclusions: a) The population of Nanjing will see a relatively rapid growth between 2013 and 2020; b) Given the situation, the elderly population of the city will experience a much faster increase in the next 40 years, causing an elderly bulge that not only poses heavy burden to social welfare but also gives rise to a disproportionate population structure; c) The proposed retirement age extension in theory, will reduce the pressure on pension system by retaining active labors, and thus alleviating the problems of aging population to some extent; d) The newly-issued Two-Child Policy will not change the trends in or transform the population structure, therefore its effects on population aging is rather limited.
Population in Nanjing; Leslie Matrix; Gray Forecast Model; Populationaging; Extension of Retirement Age; Two-Child Policy
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@inproceedings{bowen2013the,
  title={The Application of the Modified Leslie Model in Predicting the Population Change of Nanjing},
  author={Bowen Wang, Siqi Chen, and Jiayu Lou},
  url={http://archive.ymsc.tsinghua.edu.cn/pacm_paperurl/20160818144721143139237},
  booktitle={Dongrun-Yau Science Award},
  year={2013},
}
Bowen Wang, Siqi Chen, and Jiayu Lou. The Application of the Modified Leslie Model in Predicting the Population Change of Nanjing. 2013. In Dongrun-Yau Science Award. http://archive.ymsc.tsinghua.edu.cn/pacm_paperurl/20160818144721143139237.
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