We formulate the Riemannian calculus of the probability set embedded with L^2-Wasserstein metric. This is an initial work of transport information geometry. Our investigation starts with the probability simplex (probability manifold) supported on vertices of a finite graph. The main idea is to embed the probability manifold as a submanifold of the positive measure space with a nonlinear metric tensor. Here the nonlinearity comes from the linear weighted Laplacian operator. By this viewpoint, we establish torsion-free Christoffel symbols, Levi-Civita connections, curvature tensors, and volume forms in the probability manifold by Euclidean coordinates. As a consequence, the Jacobi equation, Laplace-Beltrami and Hessian operators on the probability manifold are derived. These geometric computations are also provided in the infinite-dimensional density space (density manifold) supported on a finite-dimensional manifold. In particular, an identity is given connecting the Baker-{É}mery Γ2 operator (carr{é} du champ it{é}r{é}) by connecting Fisher-Rao information metric and optimal transport metric. Several examples are demonstrated.

We define the notion of a Ricci curvature lower bound for parametrized statistical models. Following the seminal ideas of Lott–Sturm–Villani, we define this notion based on the geodesic convexity of the Kullback–Leibler divergence in a Wasserstein statistical manifold, that is, a manifold of probability distributions endowed with a Wasserstein metric tensor structure. Within these definitions, which are based on Fisher information matrix and Wasserstein Christoffel symbols, the Ricci curvature is related to both, information geometry and Wasserstein geometry. These definitions allow us to formulate bounds on the convergence rate of Wasserstein gradient flows and information functional inequalities in parameter space. We discuss examples of Ricci curvature lower bounds and convergence rates in exponential family models.

Real-time crime forecasting is important. However, accurate prediction of when and where the next crime will happen is difficult. No known physical model provides a reasonable approximation to such a complex system. Historical crime data are sparse in both space and time and the signal of interests is weak. In this work, we first present a proper representation of crime data. We then adapt the spatial temporal residual network on the well represented data to predict the distribution of crime in Los Angeles at the scale of hours in neighborhood-sized parcels. These experiments as well as comparisons with several existing approaches to prediction demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model in terms of accuracy. Finally, we present a ternarization technique to address the resource consumption issue for its deployment in real world. This work is an extension of our short conference proceeding paper [Wang et al, Arxiv 1707.03340].

In this paper, we consider the harmonic extension problem, which is widely used in many applications of machine learning. We formulate the harmonic extension as solving a Laplace-Beltrami equation with Dirichlet boundary condition. We use the point integral method (PIM) to solve the Laplace-Beltrami equation. The basic idea of the PIM method is to approximate the Laplace equation using an integral equation, which is easy to be discretized from points. Based on the integral equation, we found that traditional graph Laplacian method (GLM) may fail to approximate the harmonic functions in the classical sense. For the Laplace-Beltrami equation with Dirichlet boundary, we can prove the convergence of the point integral method. The point integral method is also very easy to implement, which only requires a minor modification of the graph Laplacian. One important application of the harmonic extension in machine learning is semi-supervised learning. We run a popular semi-supervised learning algorithm by Zhu et al. over a couple of well-known datasets and compare the performance of the aforementioned approaches. Our experiments show the PIM performs the best. We also apply PIM to an image recovery problem and show it outperforms GLM. Finally, on a model problem of Laplace-Beltrami equation with Dirichlet boundary, we prove the convergence of the point integral method.

The moment-entropy inequality shows that a contin- uous random variable with given second moment and maximal Shannon entropy must be Gaussian. Stam’s inequality shows that a continuous random variable with given Fisher information and minimal Shannon entropy must also be Gaussian. The Crame ́r- Rao inequality is a direct consequence of these two inequalities. In this paper the inequalities above are extended to Renyi entropy, p-th moment, and generalized Fisher information. Gen- eralized Gaussian random densities are introduced and shown to be the extremal densities for the new inequalities. An extension of the Crame ́r–Rao inequality is derived as a consequence of these moment and Fisher information inequalities.