We establish necessary and sufficient conditions for consistent root reconstruction in continuous-time Markov models with countable state space on bounded-height trees. Here a root state estimator is said to be consistent if the probability that it returns to the true root state converges to 1 as the number of leaves tends to infinity. We also derive quantitative bounds on the error of reconstruction. Our results answer a question of Gascuel and Steel [GS10] and have implications for ancestral sequence reconstruction in a classical evolutionary model of nucleotide insertion and deletion [TKF91].

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General upper tail estimates are given for counting edges in a random induced subhypergraph of a fixed hypergraph ℋ, with an easy proof by estimating the moments. As an application we consider the numbers of arithmetic progressions and Schur triples in random subsets of integers. In the second part of the paper we return to the subgraph counts in random graphs and provide upper tail estimates in the rooted case.

We study the critical Ising model on the square lattice in bounded simply connected domains with + and free boundary conditions. We relate the energy density of the model to a discrete fermionic correlator and compute its scaling limit by discrete complex analysis methods. As a consequence, we obtain a simple exact formula for the scaling limit of the energy field one-point function in terms of the hyperbolic metric. This confirms the predictions originating in physics, but also provides a higher precision.

We consider the KPZ equation in one space dimension driven by a sta- tionary centred space–time random field, which is sufficiently integrable and mixing, but not necessarily Gaussian. We show that, in the weakly asymmetric regime, the solution to this equation considered at a suitable large scale and in a suitable reference frame converges to the Hopf–Cole solution to the KPZ equation driven by space–time Gaussian white noise. While the limit- ing process depends only on the integrated variance of the driving field, the diverging constants appearing in the definition of the reference frame also depend on higher order moments.