We obtain two-sided sub-Gaussian estimates of heat kernels for strongly local Dirichlet forms on intervals, equipped with self-similar measures generated by iterated function systems (IFS's) that do not satisfy the open set condition (OSC) and have overlaps. We first give a framework for heat kernel estimates on intervals, and then consider examples of self-similar measures to illustrate this phenomenon. These examples include the infinite Bernoulli convolution associated with the golden ratio, and a family of convolutions of Cantor-type measures. We make use of Strichartz second-order identities defined by auxiliary IFS's to compute measures of cells on different levels. These auxiliary IFS's do satisfy the OSC and are used to define new metrics. The walk dimensions obtained under these new metrics are strictly greater than 2 and are closely related to the spectral dimension of fractal Laplacians.

We consider two-dimensional critical bond percolation. Conditioned on the existence of an open circuit in an annulus, we show that the ratio of the expected size of the shortest open circuit to the expected size of the innermost circuit tends to zero as the side length of the annulus tends to infinity, the aspect ratio remaining fixed. The same proof yields a similar result for the lowest open crossing of a rectangle. In this last case, we answer a question of Kesten and Zhang by showing in addition that the ratio of the length of the shortest crossing to the length of the lowest tends to zero in probability. This suggests that the chemical distance in critical percolation is given by an exponent strictly smaller than that of the lowest path.

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Over time, a population acquires neutral genetic substitutions as a consequence of random drift. A famous result in population genetics asserts that the rate, K, at which these substitutions accumulate in the population coincides with the mutation rate, u, at which they arise in individuals: K = u. This identity enables genetic sequence data to be used as a “molecular clock” to estimate the timing of evolutionary events. While the molecular clock is known to be perturbed by selection, it is thought that K = u holds very generally for neutral evolution. Here we show that asymmetric spatial population structure can alter the molecular clock rate for neutral mutations, leading to either K<u or K>u. Our results apply to a general class of haploid, asexually reproducing, spatially structured populations. Deviations from K = u occur because mutations arise unequally at different sites and have different probabilities of fixation depending on where they arise. If birth rates are uniform across sites, then K
u. In general, K can take any value between 0 and Nu. Our model can be applied to a variety of population structures. In one example, we investigate the accumulation of genetic mutations in the small intestine. In another application, we analyze over 900 Twitter networks to study the effect of network topology on the fixation of neutral innovations in social evolution.

We provide a model of a decentralized, dynamic auction market platform (e.g., eBay) in which a large number of buyers and sellers participate in simultaneous, singleunit auctions each period. Our model accounts for the endogenous entry of agents and the impact of intertemporal optimization on bids. Solving our model with a finite number of bidders is computationally intractable due to the curse of dimensionality, so we prove that a continuum version of our model provides a good approximation of an equilibrium in the finite model. We use the approximation to estimate the structural primitives of our model using Kindle sales on eBay. We find that just over one third of Kindle auctions on eBay result in an inefficient allocation with deadweight loss amounting to 13.5% of total possible market surplus. We also find that partial centralization - for example, runnng half as many 2-unit, uniform price auctions each day - would eliminate a large fraction of the inefficiency, but yield lower seller revenues. Our results highlight the importance of understanding platform composition effects—selection of agents into the market—in assessing the implications of market design.