Long term prediction such as multi-step time series prediction is a challenging prognostics problem. This paper proposes an improved AR time series model called ND-AR model (Nonlinear Degradation AutoRegression) for Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimation of lithium-ion batteries. The nonlinear degradation feature of the lithiumion battery capacity degradation is analyzed and then the non-linear accelerated degradation factor is extracted to improve the linear AR model. In this model, the nonlinear degradation factor can be obtained with curve fitting, and then the ND-AR model can be applied as an adaptive datadriven prognostics method to monitor degradation time series data. Experimental results with CALCE battery data set show that the proposed nonlinear degradation AR model can realize satisfied prognostics for various lithium-ion batteries with low computing complexity.

A basic, simple energy method for the Boltzmann equation is presented here. It is based on a new macromicro decomposition of the Boltzmann equation as well as the H-theorem. This allows us to make use of the ideas from hyperbolic conservation laws and viscous conservation laws to yield the direct energy method. As an illustration, we apply the method for the study of the time-asymptotic, nonlinear stability of the global Maxwellian states. Previous energy method, starting with Grad and finishing with Ukai, involves the spectral analysis and regularity of collision operator through sophisticated weighted norms.

This is the <i>Leonardo da Vinci Lecture</i> given in Milan in March 2006. It is a survey on the concept of space-time over the last 3000years: it starts with Euclidean geometry, discusses the contributions of Gauss and Riemannian geometry, presents the dynamic concept of space-time in Einsteins general relativity, describes the importance of symmetries, and ends with Calabi-Yau manifolds and their importance in todays string theories in the attempt for a unified theory of physics.

We study the two main types of trajectories of the ABC ow in the near-integrable regime: spiral orbits and edge orbits. The former are helical orbits which are perturbations of similar orbits that exist in the integrable regime, while the latter exist only in the non-integrable regime. We prove existence of ballistic (i.e., linearly growing) spiral orbits by using the contraction mapping principle in the Hamiltonian formulation, and we also nd and analyze ballistic edge orbits. We discuss the relationship of existence of these orbits with questions concerning front propagation in the presence of ows, in particular, the question of linear (i.e., maximal possible) front speed enhancement rate for ABC ows.

We prove pinching estimates for dual flows provided the curvature function used in the inverse flow in de Sitter space is convex.