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Economists historically measure the degree to which the market is surprised by an earnings announcement by the consensus forecast error, defined as difference between the actual earnings and the consensus forecast. The consensus might be calculated using either the mean or median of security analysts forecasts. The premise of this measure is that the consensus forecast is a good proxy for the markets expectation of earnings. Hence the consensus forecast error captures how surprised the market is when the earnings is announced. The consensus forecast error is a building block of a host of studies across finance, accounting and economics (see for a survey of event studies in Kothari (2001)). For instance, in finance and accounting, it is used in event studies of how efficiently markets react to earnings announcements. Efficient market studies when it comes to bond or currency markets and macroeconomic

Inspired by works of Castéras (Pac J Math 276:321–345, 2015), Li and Zhu (Calc Var Partial Differ Equ 58:1–18, 2019), Sun and Zhu (Calc Var Partial Differ Equ 60:1–26, 2021), we propose a heat flow for the mean field equation on a connected finite graph G=(V,E). Namely ∂_tϕ(u)=Δu−Q+ρ\frac{e^u}{∫_V e^u dμ} u(⋅,0)=u_0, where Δ is the standard graph Laplacian, ρ is a real number, Q:V→R is a function satisfying ∫_V Qdμ=ρ, and ϕ:R→R is one of certain smooth functions including ϕ(s)=es. We prove that for any initial data u_0 and any ρ∈R, there exists a unique solution u:V×[0,+∞)→R of the above heat flow; moreover, u(x, t) converges to some function u_∞:V→R uniformly in x∈V as t→+∞, and u_∞ is a solution of the mean field equation Δu_∞−Q+ρ\frac{e^{u_∞}}{∫_V e^{u_∞}dμ}=0. Though G is a finite graph, this result is still unexpected, even in the special case Q≡0. Our approach reads as follows: the short time existence of the heat flow follows from the ODE theory; various integral estimates give its long time existence; moreover we establish a Lojasiewicz–Simon type inequality and use it to conclude the convergence of the heat flow.

In this thesis, we consider some aspects of$noncommutative classical invariant theory$, i.e., noncommutative invariants of$the classical group SL(2, k)$. We develop a$symbolic method$for invariants and covariants, and we use the method to compute some invariant algebras. The subspace$Ĩ$_{d}^{m}of the noncommutative invariant algebra$Ĩ$_{$d$}consisting of homogeneous elements of degree$m$has the structure of a module over the$symmetric group S$_{$m$}. We find the explicit decomposition into irreducible modules. As a consequence, we obtain the$Hilbert series$of the commutative classical invariant algebras. The$Cayley—Sylvester theorem$and the$Hermite reciprocity law$are studied in some detail. We consider a new power series H($Ĩ$_{d},$t$) whose coefficients are the number of irreducible$S$_{$m$}-modules in the decomposition of$Ĩ$_{d}^{m}, and show that it is rational. Finally, we develop some analogues of all this for covariants.

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