We establish necessary and sufficient conditions for consistent root reconstruction in continuous-time Markov models with countable state space on bounded-height trees. Here a root state estimator is said to be consistent if the probability that it returns to the true root state converges to 1 as the number of leaves tends to infinity. We also derive quantitative bounds on the error of reconstruction. Our results answer a question of Gascuel and Steel [GS10] and have implications for ancestral sequence reconstruction in a classical evolutionary model of nucleotide insertion and deletion [TKF91].

No abstract uploaded!

No abstract uploaded!

We prove that uniform random quadrangulations of the sphere with$n$faces, endowed with the usual graph distance and renormalized by$n$^{−1/4}, converge as$n$→$∞$in distribution for the Gromov–Hausdorff topology to a limiting metric space. We validate a conjecture by Le Gall, by showing that the limit is (up to a scale constant) the so-called$Brownian map$, which was introduced by Marckert–Mokkadem and Le Gall as the most natural candidate for the scaling limit of many models of random plane maps. The proof relies strongly on the concept of$geodesic stars$in the map, which are configurations made of several geodesics that only share a common endpoint and do not meet elsewhere.

In an infinite sequence of independent identically distributed continuous random variables we study the number of strings of two subsequent records interrupted by a given number of non-records. By embedding in a marked Poisson process we prove that these counts are independent and Poisson distributed. Also the distribution of the number of uninterrupted strings of records is considered.