Prediction error is critical to assessing the performance of statistical methods and selecting statistical models. We propose the cross-validation and approximated cross-validation methods for estimating prediction error under a broad q-class of Bregman divergence for error measures which embeds nearly all of the commonly used loss functions in regression, classification procedures and machine learning literature. The approximated cross-validation formulas are analytically derived, which facilitate fast estimation of prediction error under the Bregman divergence. We then study a data-driven optimal bandwidth selector for the local-likelihood estimation that minimizes the overall prediction error or equivalently the covariance penalty. It is shown that the covariance penalty and cross-validation methods converge to the same mean-prediction-error-criterion. We also propose a lower-bound scheme for computing the local logistic regression estimates and demonstrate that it is as simple and stable as the local least-squares regression estimation. The algorithm monotonically enhances the target local-likelihood and converges. The idea and methods are extended to the generalized varying-coefficient models and semiparametric models.

We propose a new nonparametric test for detecting the presence of jumps in asset prices using discretely observed data. Compared with the test in At-Sahalia and Jacod (2009), our new test enjoys the same asymptotic properties but has smaller variance. These results are justified both theoretically and numerically. We also propose a new procedure to locate the jumps. The jump identification problem reduces to a multiple comparison problem. We employ the false discovery rate approach to control the probability of type I error. Numerical studies further demonstrate the power of our new method.

High-dimensional linear regression has been intensively studied in the community of statistics in the last two decades. For convenience of theoretical analyses, classical methods usually assume independent observations and subGaussian-tailed errors. However, neither of them hold in many real high-dimensional time-series data. Recently [Sun, Zhou, Fan, 2019, J. Amer. Stat. Assoc., in press] proposed Adaptive Huber Regression (AHR) to address the issue of heavy-tailed errors. They discover that the robustification parameter of the Huber loss should adapt to the sample size, the dimensionality and (1+\delta) -moments of the heavy-tailed errors. We progress in a vertical direction and justify AHR on dependent observations. Specially, we consider an important dependence structure---Markov dependence. Our results show that the Markov dependence impacts on the adaption of the robustification parameter and the estimation of regression coefficients in the way that the sample size should be discounted by a factor depending on the spectral gap of the underlying Markov chain.

Big data is transforming our world, revolutionizing operations and analytics everywhere, from financial engineering to biomedical sciences. The complexity of big data often makes dimension reduction techniques necessary before conducting statistical inference. Principal component analysis, commonly referred to as PCA, has become an essential tool for multivariate data analysis and unsupervised dimension reduction, the goal of which is to find a lower dimensional subspace that captures most of the variation in the dataset. This article provides an overview of methodological and theoretical developments of PCA over the past decade, with focus on its applications to big data analytics. We first review the mathematical formulation of PCA and its theoretical development from the view point of perturbation analysis. We then briefly discuss the relationship between PCA and factor analysis as well as its applications to

Heterogeneity is an unwanted variation when analyzing aggregated datasets from multiple sources. Though different methods have been proposed for heterogeneity adjustment, no systematic theory exists to justify these methods. In this work, we propose a generic framework named ALPHA (short for Adaptive Low-rank Principal Heterogeneity Adjustment) to model, estimate, and adjust heterogeneity from the original data. Once the heterogeneity is adjusted, we are able to remove the batch effects and to enhance the inferential power by aggregating the homogeneous residuals from multiple sources. Under a pervasive assumption that the latent heterogeneity factors simultaneously affect a fraction of observed variables, we provide a rigorous theory to justify the proposed framework. Our framework also allows the incorporation of informative covariates and appeals to the Bless of Dimensionality. As an illustrative