Over the last two decades, many exciting variable selection methods have been developed for finding a small group of covariates that are associated with the response from a large pool. Can the discoveries by such data mining approaches be spurious due to high dimensionality and limited sample size? Can our fundamental assumptions on exogeneity of covariates needed for such variable selection be validated with the data? To answer these questions, we need to derive the distributions of the maximum spurious correlations given certain number of predictors, namely, the distribution of the correlation of a response variable Y with the best s linear combinations of p covariates X, even when X and Y are independent. When the covariance matrix of X possesses the restricted eigenvalue property, we derive such distributions for both finite s and diverging s, using Gaussian approximation and empirical process

We propose a high-dimensional classification method that involves nonparametric feature augmentation. Knowing that marginal density ratios are the most powerful univariate classifiers, we use the ratio estimates to transform the original feature measurements. Subsequently, penalized logistic regression is invoked, taking as input the newly transformed or augmented features. This procedure trains models equipped with local complexity and global simplicity, thereby avoiding the curse of dimensionality while creating a flexible nonlinear decision boundary. The resulting method is called feature augmentation via nonparametrics and selection (FANS). We motivate FANS by generalizing the naive Bayes model, writing the log ratio of joint densities as a linear combination of those of marginal densities. It is related to generalized additive models, but has better interpretability and computability. Risk bounds are

Big data is transforming our world, revolutionizing operations and analytics everywhere, from financial engineering to biomedical sciences. The complexity of big data often makes dimension reduction techniques necessary before conducting statistical inference. Principal component analysis, commonly referred to as PCA, has become an essential tool for multivariate data analysis and unsupervised dimension reduction, the goal of which is to find a lower dimensional subspace that captures most of the variation in the dataset. This article provides an overview of methodological and theoretical developments of PCA over the past decade, with focus on its applications to big data analytics. We first review the mathematical formulation of PCA and its theoretical development from the view point of perturbation analysis. We then briefly discuss the relationship between PCA and factor analysis as well as its applications to

Problems of nonparametric ltering arises frequently in engineering and nancial economics. Nonparametric lters often involve some ltering parameters to choose. These parameters can be chosen to optimize the performance locally at each time point or globally over a time interval. In this article, the ltering parameters are chosen via minimizing the prediction error for a large class of lters. Under a general martingale setting, with mild conditions on the time series structure and virtually no assumption on lters, we show that the adaptive lter with ltering parameter chosen by historical data performs nearly as well as the one with the ideal lter in the class, in terms of ltering errors. The theoretical result is also veri ed via intensive simulations. Our approach is also useful for choosing the orders of parametric models such as AR or GARCH processes. It can also be applied to volatility estimation in nancial economics. We illustrate the proposed methods by estimating the volatility of the returns of the S&P500 index and the yields of the three-month Treasury bills.

We propose several statistics to test the Markov hypothesis for -mixing stationary processes sampled at discrete time intervals. Our tests are based on the ChapmanKolmogorov equation. We establish the asymptotic null distributions of the proposed test statistics, showing that Wilkss phenomenon holds. We compute the power of the test and provide simulations to investigate the finite sample performance of the test statistics when the null model is a diffusion process, with alternatives consisting of models with a stochastic mean reversion level, stochastic volatility and jumps.