Variable selection is vital to statistical data analyses. Many of procedures in use are ad hoc stepwise selection procedures, which are computationally expensiveandignore stochastic errors in the variable selection process of previous steps. An automatic and simultaneous variable selection procedure can be obtained by using a penalized likelihood method. In traditional linear models, the best subset selection and stepwise deletion methods coincide with a penalized leastsquares method when design matrices are orthonormal. In this paper, we propose a few new approaches to selecting variables for linear models, robust regression models and generalized linear models based on a penalized likelihood approach. A family of thresholding functions are proposed. The LASSO proposed by Tibshirani (1996) is a member of the penalized leastsquares with the # #-penalty. A smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) penalty function is introduced to ameliorate the properties of # #-penalty. A unied algorithm is introduced, which is backed up by statistical theory. The new approaches are compared with the ordinary leastsquares methods, the garrote method by Breiman (1995) and the LASSO method by Tibshirani (1996). Our simulation results show that the newly proposed methods compare favorably with other approaches as an automatic variable selection technique. Because of simultaneous selection of variables and estimation of parameters, we are able to give a simple estimated standard error formula, which is tested to be accurate enough for practical applications. Two real data examples illustrate the versatility and eectiveness of the

Motivated by the problem of colocalization analysis in fluorescence microscopic imaging, we study in this paper structured detection of correlated regions between two random processes observed on a common domain. We argue that although intuitive, direct use of the maximum log-likelihood statistic suffers from potential bias and substantially reduced power, and introduce a simple size-based normalization to overcome this problem. We show that scanning with the proposed size-corrected likelihood ratio statistics leads to optimal correlation detection over a large collection of structured correlation detection problems.

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Value at Risk (VaR) is a fundamental tool for managing market risks. It measures the worst loss to be expected of a portfolio over a given time horizon under normal market conditions at a given confidence level. Calculation of VaR frequently involves estimating the volatility of return processes and quantiles of standardized returns. In this paper, several semiparametric techniques are introduced to estimate the volatilities of the market prices of a portfolio. In addition, both parametric and nonparametric techniques are proposed to estimate the quantiles of standardized return processes. The newly proposed techniques also have the flexibility to adapt automatically to the changes in the dynamics of market prices over time. Their statistical efficiencies are studied both theoretically and empirically. The combination of newly proposed techniques for estimating volatility and standardized quantiles yields several new

The leverage effect refers to the generally negative correlation between an asset return and its changes of volatility. A natural estimate consists in using the empirical correlation between the daily returns and the changes of daily volatility estimated from high frequency data. The puzzle lies in the fact that such an intuitively natural estimate yields nearly zero correlation for most assets tested, despite the many economic reasons for expecting the estimated correlation to be negative. To better understand the sources of the puzzle, we analyze the different asymptotic biases that are involved in high frequency estimation of the leverage effect, including biases due to discretization errors, to smoothing errors in estimating spot volatilities, to estimation error, and to market microstructure noise. This decomposition enables us to propose novel bias correction methods for estimating the leverage effect.