The leverage effect refers to the generally negative correlation between an asset return and its changes of volatility. A natural estimate consists in using the empirical correlation between the daily returns and the changes of daily volatility estimated from high frequency data. The puzzle lies in the fact that such an intuitively natural estimate yields nearly zero correlation for most assets tested, despite the many economic reasons for expecting the estimated correlation to be negative. To better understand the sources of the puzzle, we analyze the different asymptotic biases that are involved in high frequency estimation of the leverage effect, including biases due to discretization errors, to smoothing errors in estimating spot volatilities, to estimation error, and to market microstructure noise. This decomposition enables us to propose novel bias correction methods for estimating the leverage effect.

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We propose a new nonparametric test for detecting the presence of jumps in asset prices using discretely observed data. Compared with the test in At-Sahalia and Jacod (2009), our new test enjoys the same asymptotic properties but has smaller variance. These results are justified both theoretically and numerically. We also propose a new procedure to locate the jumps. The jump identification problem reduces to a multiple comparison problem. We employ the false discovery rate approach to control the probability of type I error. Numerical studies further demonstrate the power of our new method.

Penalized likelihood methods are fundamental to ultrahigh dimensional variable selection. How high dimensionality such methods can handle remains largely unknown. In this paper, we show that in the context of generalized linear models, such methods possess model selection consistency with oracle properties even for dimensionality of nonpolynomial (NP) order of sample size, for a class of penalized likelihood approaches using folded-concave penalty functions, which were introduced to ameliorate the bias problems of convex penalty functions. This fills a long-standing gap in the literature where the dimensionality is allowed to grow slowly with the sample size. Our results are also applicable to penalized likelihood with the <i>L</i> ₁ -penalty, which is a convex function at the boundary of the class of folded-concave penalty functions under consideration. The coordinate optimization is implemented for finding the

We consider diffusivity of random walks with transition probabilities depending on the number of consecutive traversals of the last traversed edge, the so called senile reinforced random walk (SeRW). In one dimension, the walk is known to be sub-diffusive with identity reinforcement function. We perturb the model by introducing a small probability \delta of escaping the last traversed edge at each step. The perturbed SeRW model is diffusive for any \delta , with enhanced diffusivity (\delta ) in the small \delta regime. We further study stochastically perturbed SeRW models by having the last edge escape probability of the form \delta with \delta 's being independent random variables. Enhanced diffusivity in such models are logarithmically close to the so called residual diffusivity (positive in the zero \delta limit), with diffusivity between \delta and \delta . Finally, we generalize our results to higher dimensions where the unperturbed model is already diffusive. The enhanced diffusivity can be as much as \delta .