Problems of nonparametric ltering arises frequently in engineering and nancial economics. Nonparametric lters often involve some ltering parameters to choose. These parameters can be chosen to optimize the performance locally at each time point or globally over a time interval. In this article, the ltering parameters are chosen via minimizing the prediction error for a large class of lters. Under a general martingale setting, with mild conditions on the time series structure and virtually no assumption on lters, we show that the adaptive lter with ltering parameter chosen by historical data performs nearly as well as the one with the ideal lter in the class, in terms of ltering errors. The theoretical result is also veri ed via intensive simulations. Our approach is also useful for choosing the orders of parametric models such as AR or GARCH processes. It can also be applied to volatility estimation in nancial economics. We illustrate the proposed methods by estimating the volatility of the returns of the S&P500 index and the yields of the three-month Treasury bills.

This paper is about the propagation of the singularities in the solutions to the Cauchy problem of the spatially inhomogeneous Boltzmann equation with angular cutoff assumption. It is motivated by the work of BoudinDesvillettes on the propagation of singularities in solutions near vacuum. It shows that for the solution near a global Maxwellian, singularities in the initial data propagate like the free transportation. Precisely, the solution is the sum of two parts in which one keeps the singularities of the initial data and the other one is regular with locally bounded derivatives of fractional order in some Sobolev space. In addition, the dependence of the regularity on the cross-section is also given.

High throughput genetic sequencing arrays with thousands of measurements per sample and a great amount of related censored clinical data have increased demanding need for better measurement specific model selection. In this paper we establish strong oracle properties of non-concave penalized methods for non-polynomial (NP) dimensional data with censoring in the framework of Coxs proportional hazards model. A class of folded-concave penalties are employed and both LASSO and SCAD are discussed specifically. We unveil the question under which dimensionality and correlation restrictions can an oracle estimator be constructed and grasped. It is demonstrated that non-concave penalties lead to significant reduction of the irrepresentable condition needed for LASSO model selection consistency. The large deviation result for martingales, bearing interests of its own, is developed for characterizing

The varying coefficient model is an important class of nonparametric statistical model, which allows us to examine how the effects of covariates vary with exposure variables. When the number of covariates is large, the issue of variable selection arises. In this article, we propose and investigate marginal nonparametric screening methods to screen variables in sparse ultra-high-dimensional varying coefficient models. The proposed nonparametric independence screening (NIS) selects variables by ranking a measure of the nonparametric marginal contributions of each covariate given the exposure variable. The sure independent screening property is established under some mild technical conditions when the dimensionality is of nonpolynomial order, and the dimensionality reduction of NIS is quantified. To enhance the practical utility and finite sample performance, two data-driven iterative NIS (INIS) methods are

Cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) has recently emerged as a powerful tool for obtaining three-dimensional (3D) structures of biological macromolecules in native states. A minimum cryo-EM image data set for deriving a meaningful reconstruction is comprised of thousands of randomly orientated projections of identical particles photographed with a small number of electrons. The computation of 3D structure from 2D projections requires clustering, which aims to enhance the signal to noise ratio in each view by grouping similarly oriented images. Nevertheless, the prevailing clustering techniques are often compromised by three characteristics of cryo-EM data: high noise content, high dimensionality and large number of clusters. Moreover, since clustering requires registering images of similar orientation into the same pixel coordinates by 2D alignment, it is desired that the clustering algorithm can label misaligned images as outliers. Herein, we introduce a clustering algorithm γ-SUP to model the data with a q-Gaussian mixture and adopt the minimum γ-divergence for estimation, and then use a self-updating procedure to obtain the numerical solution. We apply γ-SUP to the cryo-EM images of two benchmark macromolecules, RNA polymerase II and ribosome. In the former case, simulated images were chosen to decouple clustering from alignment to demonstrate γ-SUP is more robust to misalignment outliers than the existing clustering methods used in the cryo-EM community. In the latter case, the clustering of real cryo-EM data by our γ-SUP method eliminates noise in many views to reveal true structure features of ribosome at the projection level.