An aggregated method of nonparametric estimators based on time-domain and state-domain estimators is proposed and studied. To attenuate the <i>curse of dimensionality</i>, we propose a factor modeling strategy. We first investigate the asymptotic behavior of nonparametric estimators of the volatility matrix in the time domain and in the state domain. Asymptotic normality is separately established for nonparametric estimators in the time domain and state domain. These two estimators are asymptotically independent. Hence, they can be combined, through a dynamic weighting scheme, to improve the efficiency of volatility matrix estimation. The optimal dynamic weights are derived, and it is shown that the aggregated estimator uniformly dominates volatility matrix estimators using time-domain or state-domain smoothing alone. A simulation study, based on an essentially affine model for the term structure, is

Generalized linear models and quasi-likelihood method extend the ordinary regression models to accommodate more general conditional distributions of the response. Nonparametric methods need no explicit parametric specification and the resulting model is completely determined by the data themselves. However nonparametric estimation schemes generally have a slower convergence rate such as the local polynomial smoothing estimation of nonparametric generalized linear models studied in Fan, Heckman and Wand (1995). In this work, we propose two parametrically guided nonparametric estimation schemes by incorporating prior shape information on the link transformation of the response variables conditional mean in terms of the predictor variable. Asymptotic results and numerical simulations demonstrate the improvement of our new estimation schemes over the original nonparametric counterpart.

We propose a high-dimensional classification method that involves nonparametric feature augmentation. Knowing that marginal density ratios are the most powerful univariate classifiers, we use the ratio estimates to transform the original feature measurements. Subsequently, penalized logistic regression is invoked, taking as input the newly transformed or augmented features. This procedure trains models equipped with local complexity and global simplicity, thereby avoiding the curse of dimensionality while creating a flexible nonlinear decision boundary. The resulting method is called feature augmentation via nonparametrics and selection (FANS). We motivate FANS by generalizing the naive Bayes model, writing the log ratio of joint densities as a linear combination of those of marginal densities. It is related to generalized additive models, but has better interpretability and computability. Risk bounds are

We propose several statistics to test the Markov hypothesis for -mixing stationary processes sampled at discrete time intervals. Our tests are based on the ChapmanKolmogorov equation. We establish the asymptotic null distributions of the proposed test statistics, showing that Wilkss phenomenon holds. We compute the power of the test and provide simulations to investigate the finite sample performance of the test statistics when the null model is a diffusion process, with alternatives consisting of models with a stochastic mean reversion level, stochastic volatility and jumps.

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