Many data mining and statistical machine learning algorithms have been developed to select a subset of covariates to associate with a response variable. Spurious discoveries can easily arise in high-dimensional data analysis due to enormous possibilities of such selections. How can we know statistically our discoveries better than those by chance? In this paper, we define a measure of goodness of spurious fit, which shows how good a response variable can be fitted by an optimally selected subset of covariates under the null model, and propose a simple and effective LAMM algorithm to compute it. It coincides with the maximum spurious correlation for linear models and can be regarded as a generalized maximum spurious correlation. We derive the asymptotic distribution of such goodness of spurious fit for generalized linear models and L1 regression. Such an asymptotic distribution depends on the sample size, ambient dimension, the number of variables used in the fit, and the covariance information. It can be consistently estimated by multiplier bootstrapping and used as a benchmark to guard against spurious discoveries. It can also be applied to model selection, which considers only candidate models with goodness of fits better than those by spurious fits. The theory and method are convincingly illustrated by simulated examples and an application to the binary outcomes from German Neuroblastoma Trials.

For the data based choice of the bandwidth of a kernel density estimator, several methods have recently been proposed which have a very fast asymptotic rate of convergence to the optimal bandwidth. In particular the relative rate of convergence is the square root of the sample size, which is known to be the best possible. The point of this paper is to show how semiparametric arguments can be employed to calculate the best possible constant coefficient, that is, an analog of the usual Fisher information, in this convergence. This establishes an important benchmark as to how well bandwidth selection methods can ever hope to perform. It is seen that some existing methods attain the bound, others do not.

Generalized linear models and quasi-likelihood method extend the ordinary regression models to accommodate more general conditional distributions of the response. Nonparametric methods need no explicit parametric specification and the resulting model is completely determined by the data themselves. However nonparametric estimation schemes generally have a slower convergence rate such as the local polynomial smoothing estimation of nonparametric generalized linear models studied in Fan, Heckman and Wand (1995). In this work, we propose two parametrically guided nonparametric estimation schemes by incorporating prior shape information on the link transformation of the response variables conditional mean in terms of the predictor variable. Asymptotic results and numerical simulations demonstrate the improvement of our new estimation schemes over the original nonparametric counterpart.

This paper is concerned with the problem of top- K ranking from pairwise comparisons. Given a collection of K items and a few pairwise comparisons across them, one wishes to identify the set of K items that receive the highest ranks. To tackle this problem, we adopt the logistic parametric model---the Bradley-Terry-Luce model, where each item is assigned a latent preference score, and where the outcome of each pairwise comparison depends solely on the relative scores of the two items involved. Recent works have made significant progress towards characterizing the performance (eg the mean square error for estimating the scores) of several classical methods, including the spectral method and the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). However, where they stand regarding top- K ranking remains unsettled.

Generalized likelihood ratio statistics have been proposed in Fan, Zhang and Zhang [Ann. Statist. 29 (2001) 153193] as a generally applicable method for testing nonparametric hypotheses about nonparametric functions. The likelihood ratio statistics are constructed based on the assumption that the distributions of stochastic errors are in a certain parametric family. We extend their work to the case where the error distribution is completely unspecified via newly proposed sieve empirical likelihood ratio (SELR) tests. The approach is also applied to test conditional estimating equations on the distributions of stochastic errors. It is shown that the proposed SELR statistics follow asymptotically rescaled 2-distributions, with the scale constants and the degrees of freedom being independent of the nuisance parameters. This demonstrates that the Wilks phenomenon observed in Fan, Zhang and Zhang [Ann. Statist. 29