We demonstrate how path integrals often used in problems of theoretical physics can be adapted to provide a machinery for performing Bayesian inference in function spaces. Such inference comes about naturally in the study of inverse problems of recovering continuous (infinite dimensional) coefficient functions from ordinary or partial differential equations, a problem which is typically ill-posed. Regularization of these problems using L2 function spaces (Tikhonov regularization) is equivalent to Bayesian probabilistic inference, using a Gaussian prior. The Bayesian interpretation of inverse problem regularization is useful since it allows one to quantify and characterize error and degree of precision in the solution of inverse problems, as well as examine assumptions made in solving the problem—namely whether the subjective choice of regularization is compatible with prior knowledge. Using path-integral formalism, Bayesian inference can be explored through various perturbative techniques, such as the semiclassical approximation, which we use in this manuscript. Perturbative path-integral approaches, while offering alternatives to computational approaches like Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo (MCMC), also provide natural starting points for MCMC methods that can be used to refine approximations. In this manuscript, we illustrate a path-integral formulation for inverse problems and demonstrate it on an inverse problem in membrane biophysics as well as inverse problems in potential theories involving the Poisson equation.

Financial econometrics is an interdisciplinary subject that uses statistical methods and economic theory to address a variety of quantitative problems in finance. This compact, master's-level textbook focuses on methodology and includes real financial data illustrations throughout. The mathematical level is purposely kept moderate, allowing the power of the quantitative methods to be understood without too much technical detail. Wherever possible, the authors indicate where to find the relevant R codes to implement the various methods. This book grew out of a course at Princeton University which is one of the world's flagship programs in computational finance and financial engineering. It will therefore be useful for those with an economics and finance background who are looking to sharpen their quantitative skills, and also for those with strong quantitative skills who want to learn how to apply them to finance.

Principal component analysis (PCA) is one of the most commonly used statistical procedures with a wide range of applications. This paper considers both minimax and adaptive estimation of the principal subspace in the high dimensional setting. Under mild technical conditions, we first establish optimal rates of convergence for estimating the principal subspace which sharp with respect to all the parameters, thus providing a complete character ization of the difficulty of the estimation problem in term of the convergence rate. The lower bound is obtained by calculating the local metric entropy an application of Fano's lemma. The rate optimal estimator is constructed using aggregation, which, however, might not be computationally feasible. We then introduce an adaptive procedure for estimating the principal sub space which is fully data driven and can be computed efficiently. It is shown that the estimator attains the optimal rates of convergence simultaneously over a large collection of the parameter spaces. A key idea in our construc tion is a reduction scheme which reduces the sparse PCA problem to a high dimensional multivariate regression problem. This method is potentially useful for other related

In deconvolution in R^d, d≥1, with mixing density p(∈\mathscr{P}) and kernel h, the mixture density f_p(∈\mathscr{F}_p) is estimated with MDE f_{\hat{p}n}, having upper L1-error rate, an, in probability or in risk; \hat{p}_n∈\mathscr{P}. In one application, \mathscr{P} consists of L1-separable densities in R with differences changing sign at most J times and h(x−y) Totally Positive. When h is known and p is \tilde{q}-smooth, vanishing outside a compact in R^d, plug-in upper bounds are provided for the L2-error rate of \hat{p}_n and its [s]-th mixed partial derivative \hat{p}^{(s)}_n, via ∥f_{\hat{p}_n}−f_p∥_1, with rates (log a^{−1}_n)^{−N_1} and a^{N_2}_n, respectively, for h super-smooth and smooth; \tilde{q}∈R^+, [s] ≤ \tilde{q}, d≥1, N_1>0, N_2>0. For a_n ∼ (logn)^ζ⋅(n^{−δ}), the former rate is optimal for any δ>0 and the latter misses the optimal by the factor (logn)^ξ when δ=.5; ζ>0, ξ>0. N_1 and N_2 appear in optimal rates and lower error and risk bounds in the deconvolution literature.

Evolution occurs in populations of reproducing individuals. The structure of a population can affect which traits evolve 1, 2. Understanding evolutionary game dynamics in structured populations remains difficult. Mathematical results are known for special structures in which all individuals have the same number of neighbours 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. The general case, in which the number of neighbours can vary, has remained open. For arbitrary selection intensity, the problem is in a computational complexity class that suggests there is no efficient algorithm 9. Whether a simple solution for weak selection exists has remained unanswered. Here we provide a solution for weak selection that applies to any graph or network. Our method relies on calculating the coalescence times 10, 11 of random walks 12. We evaluate large numbers of diverse population structures for their propensity to favour cooperation. We study how small