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Factor modeling is an essential tool for exploring intrinsic dependence structures among high-dimensional random variables. Much progress has been made for estimating the covariance matrix from a high-dimensional factor model. However, the blessing of dimensionality has not yet been fully embraced in the literature: much of the available data are often ignored in constructing covariance matrix estimates. If our goal is to accurately estimate a covariance matrix of a set of targeted variables, shall we employ additional data, which are beyond the variables of interest, in the estimation? In this article, we provide sufficient conditions for an affirmative answer, and further quantify its gain in terms of Fisher information and convergence rate. In fact, even an oracle-like result (as if all the factors were known) can be achieved when a sufficiently large number of variables is used. The idea of using data as much as possible

Value-at-risk measures the worst loss to be expected of a portfolio over a given time horizon at a given confidence level. Calculation of VaR frequently involves estimating the volatility of return processes and quantiles of standardized returns. In this paper, several semiparametric techniques are introduced to estimate the volatilities. In addition, both parametric and nonparametric techniques are proposed to estimate the quantiles of standardized return processes. The newly proposed techniques also have the flexibility to adapt automatically to the changes in the dynamics of market prices over time. The combination of newly proposed techniques for estimating volatility and standardized quantiles yields several new techniques for evaluating multiple period VaR. The performance of the newly proposed VaR estimators is evaluated and compared with some of existing methods. Our simulation results and empirical

We develop a specification test for the transition density of a discretely-sampled continuous-time diffusion process, based on a comparison of a nonparametric estimate of the transition density or distribution function to their corresponding parametric counterparts assumed by the null hypothesis. We provide a direct comparison of the two densities for an arbitrary specification of the null parametric model using three different discrepancy measures between the null and alternative transition density and distribution functions. We establish the asymptotic null distributions of proposed test statistics and compute their power functions. The finite sample properties are critically investigated via simulation studies and are compared with other tests. Our approaches are illustrated by applications to implied volatility data and Treasury bill data.

Local polynomial fitting has many exciting statistical properties which where established under i.i.d. setting. However, the need for nonlinea r time series modeling, constructing predictive intervals, understanding divergence of nonlinear time series requires the development of the theory of local polynomial fitting for dependent data. In this paper, we study the problem of estimating conditional mean functions and their derivatives via a local polynomial fit. The functions include conditional moments, conditional distribution as well as conditional density functions. Joint asymptotic normality for derivative estimation is established for both strongly mixing and mixing processes.