Value-at-risk measures the worst loss to be expected of a portfolio over a given time horizon at a given confidence level. Calculation of VaR frequently involves estimating the volatility of return processes and quantiles of standardized returns. In this paper, several semiparametric techniques are introduced to estimate the volatilities. In addition, both parametric and nonparametric techniques are proposed to estimate the quantiles of standardized return processes. The newly proposed techniques also have the flexibility to adapt automatically to the changes in the dynamics of market prices over time. The combination of newly proposed techniques for estimating volatility and standardized quantiles yields several new techniques for evaluating multiple period VaR. The performance of the newly proposed VaR estimators is evaluated and compared with some of existing methods. Our simulation results and empirical

Local quasilikelihood estimation is a useful extension of local least squares methods, but its computational cost and algorithmic convergence problems make the procedure less appealing, particularly when it is iteratively used in methods such as the backfitting algorithm, crossvalidation and bootstrapping. A onestep local quasilikelihood estimator is introduced to overcome the computational drawbacks of the local quasilikelihood method. We demonstrate that as long as the initial estimators are reasonably good, the onestep estimator has the same asymptotic behaviour as the local quasilikelihood method. Our simulation shows that the onestep estimator performs at least as well as the local quasilikelihood method for a wide range of choices of bandwidths. A datadriven bandwidth selector is proposed for the onestep estimator based on the preasymptotic substitution method of Fan and Gijbels. It is

Local polynomial fitting has many exciting statistical properties which where established under i.i.d. setting. However, the need for nonlinea r time series modeling, constructing predictive intervals, understanding divergence of nonlinear time series requires the development of the theory of local polynomial fitting for dependent data. In this paper, we study the problem of estimating conditional mean functions and their derivatives via a local polynomial fit. The functions include conditional moments, conditional distribution as well as conditional density functions. Joint asymptotic normality for derivative estimation is established for both strongly mixing and mixing processes.

Factor modeling is an essential tool for exploring intrinsic dependence structures among high-dimensional random variables. Much progress has been made for estimating the covariance matrix from a high-dimensional factor model. However, the blessing of dimensionality has not yet been fully embraced in the literature: much of the available data are often ignored in constructing covariance matrix estimates. If our goal is to accurately estimate a covariance matrix of a set of targeted variables, shall we employ additional data, which are beyond the variables of interest, in the estimation? In this article, we provide sufficient conditions for an affirmative answer, and further quantify its gain in terms of Fisher information and convergence rate. In fact, even an oracle-like result (as if all the factors were known) can be achieved when a sufficiently large number of variables is used. The idea of using data as much as possible

Suppose that we have n observations from the convolution model Y = X+, where X and are the independent unobservable random variables, and is measurement error with a known distribution. We will discuss the asymptotic normality for deconvolving kernel density estimators of the unknown density f_{X}(.) of X by assuming either the tail of the characteristic function of behaves as f_{X}(.) (which is called supersmooth error), or the tail of the characteristic function is of order f_{X}(.) (called ordinary smooth error). Asymptotic normality of estimating the functional f_{X}(.) is also addressed.