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When sample, X = x, is observed from intractable c.d.f. Fθ, or a Black-Box with input θ, an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) method provides approximate posterior, π_ϵ. θ^∗ is included in the support of π_ϵ when the Matching distance ρ(S(x^∗), S(x)) ≤ ϵ; x^∗ is a sample drawn from F_{θ^∗}, θ^∗ is obtained from prior π, S is a summary statistic, ϵ > 0. ABC concerns include: the use of only one sample, x^∗, for each θ^∗; the choices of S, ρ and ϵ; π_ϵ(θ^∗), which is determined by arbitrary kernel, K(x, x^∗; ϵ), creating visual π_ϵ-artifacts. The concerns are accommodated with the introduced Fiducial(F)-ABC for all (θ^∗ drawn): M x^∗ are drawn from F_{θ^∗}; a universal S is used, the empirical measure indexed by sets which activate its sufficiency for exchangeable observations-vectors and have been neglected; a strong, probability distance ρ is used, inherently connected with S and Matching; light is thrown to ϵ’s nature and value; πϵ is obtained from the proportions of x∗ matching x. F-ABC for all posterior is closer to Bayesian philosophy, which does not use θ^∗-exclusions. Under few, mild assumptions, π_ϵ converges to the posterior, π(θ|x), when ϵ ↓ 0, and rates of concentration of T (F_{θ^∗}) to T (F_θ) are obtained when n ↑ ∞; T is a functional. Satisfactory F-ABC for all θ^∗ drawn posteriors are depicted for parametric and data generating models, including Tukey’s (a, b, g, h)-model, a 5-parameter normal mixture and a time series model. Various advantages of the F-ABC for all are presented over coarsened posteriors for observations in R^d, d ≥ 1.

In a Data-Generating Experiment (DGE), the data, X, is often obtained either from a Black-Box with inputs θ and Y, or from a Quantile function or a learning machine, f(Y, θ); θ is unknown, element of metric space (Θ, ρ), Y is random. If X has intractable or unknown c.d.f., Fθ, non-identifiability of θ cannot be confirmed and when present, among others, limits the predictive accuracy of the learned model, f(Y, \hat{θ}); \hat{θ} estimate of θ. In Machine Learning, non-identifiability of θ is ubiquitous and its extent is a criterion for selecting a learning machine. Empirical indices, EDI and PPVI, are introduced using P-values of Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests: i) to confirm almost surely, using generated data, the discrimination of θ from θ^∗, namely that the Kolmogorov distance, dK(Fθ, Fθ^∗), is positive, ii) to confirm identifiability of θ(∈ Θ) by repeating i) for θ^∗ in a sieve of Θ, since neighboring parameter values are in practice indistinguishable, and iii) most important, to compare EDI-graphs of DGEs, preferring more discrimination and less non-identifiability among parameters, and select one DGE to use. In applications, EDI-graphs confirm nonidentifiability in mixture models and in models parametrised with sums of parameters. EDI and PPVI explain why Tukey’s g-and-h model (DGE1) has better g-discrimination than the g-and-k model (DGE2), unless the sample size is extremely large; h_0 = k_0. EDIgraphs indicate that Normal learning machines have better parameter discrimination thanSigmoid learning machines and their parameters are non-identifiable.

We develop an auto-reservoir computing framework, Auto-Reservoir Neural Network (ARNN), to efficiently and accurately make multi-step-ahead predictions based on a short-term high-dimensional time series. Different from traditional reservoir computing whose reservoir is an external dynamical system irrelevant to the target system, ARNN directly transforms the observed high-dimensional dynamics as its reservoir, which maps the high-dimensional/spatial data to the future temporal values of a target variable based on our spatiotemporal information (STI) transformation. Thus, the multi-step prediction of the target variable is achieved in an accurate and computationally efficient manner. ARNN is successfully applied to both representative models and real-world datasets, all of which show satisfactory performance in the multi-step-ahead prediction, even when the data are peturbed by noise and when the system is time-varying. Actually, such ARNN transformation equivalently expands the sample size and thus has great potential in practical applications in artificial intelligence and machine learning.

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