Long term prediction such as multi-step time series prediction is a challenging prognostics problem. This paper proposes an improved AR time series model called ND-AR model (Nonlinear Degradation AutoRegression) for Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimation of lithium-ion batteries. The nonlinear degradation feature of the lithiumion battery capacity degradation is analyzed and then the non-linear accelerated degradation factor is extracted to improve the linear AR model. In this model, the nonlinear degradation factor can be obtained with curve fitting, and then the ND-AR model can be applied as an adaptive datadriven prognostics method to monitor degradation time series data. Experimental results with CALCE battery data set show that the proposed nonlinear degradation AR model can realize satisfied prognostics for various lithium-ion batteries with low computing complexity.

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A piecewise flat manifold is a triangulated manifold given a geometry by specifying edge lengths (lengths of 1-simplices) and specifying that all simplices are Euclidean. We consider the variation of angles of piecewise flat manifolds as the geometry varies in a particular way, which we call a conformal variation. This variation generalizes variations within the class of circles with fixed intersection angles (such as circle packings) as well as other formulations of conformal variation of piecewise flat manifolds previously suggested. We describe the angle derivatives of the angles in two-and three-dimensional piecewise flat manifolds, giving rise to formulas for the derivatives of curvatures. The formulas for derivatives of curvature resemble the formulas for the change of scalar curvature under a conformal variation of Riemannian metric. They allow us to explicitly describe the variation of certain curvature functionals, including Regge’s formulation of the Einstein-Hilbert functional (total scalar curvature), and to consider convexity of these functionals. They also allow us to prove rigidity theorems for certain analogues of constant curvature and Einstein manifolds in the piecewise flat setting.

We study singular Hermitian metrics on vector bundles. There are two main results in this paper. The first one is on the coherence of the higher rank analogue of multiplier ideals for singular Hermitian metrics defined by global sections. As an application, we show the coherence of the multiplier ideal of some positively curved singular Hermitian metrics whose standard approximations are not Nakano semipositive. The aim of the second main result is to determine all negatively curved singular Hermitian metrics on certain type of vector bundles, for example, certain rank 2 bundles on elliptic curves.

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