Economists historically measure the degree to which the market is surprised by an earnings announcement by the consensus forecast error, defined as difference between the actual earnings and the consensus forecast. The consensus might be calculated using either the mean or median of security analysts forecasts. The premise of this measure is that the consensus forecast is a good proxy for the markets expectation of earnings. Hence the consensus forecast error captures how surprised the market is when the earnings is announced. The consensus forecast error is a building block of a host of studies across finance, accounting and economics (see for a survey of event studies in Kothari (2001)). For instance, in finance and accounting, it is used in event studies of how efficiently markets react to earnings announcements. Efficient market studies when it comes to bond or currency markets and macroeconomic

The influences of non-Oberbeck-Boussinesq (NOB) effects on flow instabilities and bifurcation characteristics of Rayleigh-Benard convection are examined. The working fluid is air with reference Prandtl number Pr = 0.71 and contained in two-dimensional rigid cavities of finite aspect ratios. The fluid flow is governed by the low-Mach-number equations, accounting for the NOB effects due to large temperature difference involving flow compressibility and variations of fluid viscosity and thermal conductivity with temperature. The intensity of NOB effects is measured by the dimensionless temperature differential epsilon. Linear stability analysis of the thermal conduction state is performed. An epsilon(2) scaling of the leading-order corrections of critical Rayleigh number Ra-cr and disturbance growth rate sigma due to NOB effects is identified, which is a consequence of an intrinsic symmetry of the system. The influences of weak NOB effects on flow instabilities are further studied by perturbation expansion of linear stability equations with regard to epsilon, and then the influence of aspect ratio A is investigated in detail. NOB effects are found to enhance (weaken) flow stability in large (narrow) cavities. Detailed contributions of compressibility, viscosity and buoyancy actions on disturbance kinetic energy growth are identified quantitatively by energy analysis. Besides, a weakly nonlinear theory is developed based on centre-manifold reduction to investigate the NOB influences on bifurcation characteristics near convection onset, and amplitude equations are constructed for both codimension-one and -two cases. Rich bifurcation regimes are observed based on amplitude equations and also confirmed by direct numerical simulation. Weakly nonlinear analysis is useful for organizing and understanding these simulation results.

The definition of quasi-local mass for a bounded space-like region in space-time is essential in several major unsettled roblems in general relativity. The quasi-local mass is expected to be a type of flux integral on the boundary two-surface $ \sum = \partial \Omega $ and should be independent of whichever space-like region $\sum $ bounds. An important idea which is related to the Hamiltonian formulation of general relativity is to consider a reference surface in a flat ambient space with the same first fundamental form and derive the quasi-local mass from the difference of the extrinsic geometries. This approach has be taken by Brown-York [4][5] and Liu-Yau [16][17] (see also related works [12], [15], [6], [14], [3], [9], [28], [32]) to define such notions using the isometric embedding theorem into the Euclidean three space. However, there exist surfaces in the Minkowski space whose quasilocal mass is strictly positive [19]. It appears that the momentum information needs to accounted for to reconcile the difference. In order to fully capture this information, we use isometric embeddings into the Minkowski space as references. In this article, we first prove an existence and uniqueness theorem for such isometric embeddings. We then solve the boundary value problem for Jang’s [13] equation as a procedure to recognize such a surface in the Minkowski space. In doing so, we discover new expression of quasi-local mass for a large class of “admissible” surfaces (see Theorem A and Remark 1.1). The new mass is positive when the ambient space-time satisfies the dominant energy condition and vanishes on surfaces in the Minkowski space. It also has the nice asymptotic behavior at spatial infinity and null infinity. Some of these results were announced in [29].

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Let $\Omega $ be a bounded $C^2$ domain in $R^n$ and $\phi : \partial \Omega \to \mathbb{R}^m$ be a continuous map. The Dirichlet problem for the minimal surface system asks whether there exists a Lipschitz map $f : \Omega \to \mathbb{R}^m$ with $ f |_{\partial \Omega}$ and with the graph of $f$ a minimal submanifold in $R^{n+m}$. For $m = 1$, the Dirichlet problem was solved more than thirty years ago by Jenkins-Serrin [13] for any mean convex domains and the solutions are all smooth. This paper considers the Dirichlet problem for convex domains in arbitrary codimension $m$. We prove if $\psi : \bar{\Omega} \to \mathbb{R}^m$ satisfies $8n\delta sup_{\Omega}||D^2 \psi| + \sqrt{2} sup_{\partial \Omega} |D\psi| <1$, then the Dirichlet problem for $ \psi |_{\partial \Omega}$ is solvable in smooth maps. Here $\delta$ is the diameter of $\Omega$ . Such a condition is necessary in view of an example of Lawson-Osserman [15]. In order to prove this result, we study the associated parabolic system and solve the Cauchy-Dirichlet problem with $\psi$ as initial data.