Consider an age-dependent, single-species branching process defined by a progeny number distribution, and a lifetime distribution associated with each independent particle. In this paper, we focus on the associated inverse problem where one wishes to formally solve for the progeny number distribution or the lifetime distribution that defines the Bellman-Harris branching process. We derive results for the existence and uniqueness (the identifiability) of these two distributions given one of two types of information: the extinction time probability of the entire process (extinction time distribution), or the distribution of the total number of particles at one fixed time. We demonstrate that perfect knowledge of the distribution of extinction times allows us to formally determine either the progeny number distribution or the lifetime distribution. Furthermore, we show that these constructions are unique. We then consider “data” consisting of a perfectly known total number distribution given at one specific time. For a process with known progeny number distribution and exponentially distributed lifetimes, we show that the rate parameter is identifiable. For general lifetime distributions, we also show that the progeny distribution is globally unique. Our results are presented through four theorems, each describing the constructions in the four distinct cases.

We demonstrate how path integrals often used in problems of theoretical physics can be adapted to provide a machinery for performing Bayesian inference in function spaces. Such inference comes about naturally in the study of inverse problems of recovering continuous (infinite dimensional) coefficient functions from ordinary or partial differential equations, a problem which is typically ill-posed. Regularization of these problems using L2 function spaces (Tikhonov regularization) is equivalent to Bayesian probabilistic inference, using a Gaussian prior. The Bayesian interpretation of inverse problem regularization is useful since it allows one to quantify and characterize error and degree of precision in the solution of inverse problems, as well as examine assumptions made in solving the problem—namely whether the subjective choice of regularization is compatible with prior knowledge. Using path-integral formalism, Bayesian inference can be explored through various perturbative techniques, such as the semiclassical approximation, which we use in this manuscript. Perturbative path-integral approaches, while offering alternatives to computational approaches like Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo (MCMC), also provide natural starting points for MCMC methods that can be used to refine approximations. In this manuscript, we illustrate a path-integral formulation for inverse problems and demonstrate it on an inverse problem in membrane biophysics as well as inverse problems in potential theories involving the Poisson equation.

We develop mathematical models describing the evolution of stochastic age-structured populations. After reviewing existing approaches, we formulate a complete kinetic framework for age-structured interacting populations undergoing birth, death and fission processes in spatially dependent environments. We define the full probability density for the population-size age chart and find results under specific conditions. Connections with more classical models are also explicitly derived. In particular, we show that factorial moments for non-interacting processes are described by a natural generalization of the McKendrick-von Foerster equation, which describes mean-field deterministic behavior. Our approach utilizes mixed-type, multidimensional probability distributions similar to those employed in the study of gas kinetics and with terms that satisfy BBGKY-like equation hierarchies.