We develop a specification test for the transition density of a discretely sampled continuous-time jump-diffusion process, based on a comparison of a nonparametric estimate of the transition density or distribution function with their corresponding parametric counterparts assumed by the null hypothesis. As a special case, our method applies to pure diffusions. We provide a direct comparison of the two densities for an arbitrary specification of the null parametric model using three different discrepancy measures between the null and alternative transition density and distribution functions. We establish the asymptotic null distributions of proposed test statistics and compute their power functions. We investigate the finite-sample properties through simulations and compare them with those of other tests. This article has supplementary material online.

Value-at-risk measures the worst loss to be expected of a portfolio over a given time horizon at a given confidence level. Calculation of VaR frequently involves estimating the volatility of return processes and quantiles of standardized returns. In this paper, several semiparametric techniques are introduced to estimate the volatilities. In addition, both parametric and nonparametric techniques are proposed to estimate the quantiles of standardized return processes. The newly proposed techniques also have the flexibility to adapt automatically to the changes in the dynamics of market prices over time. The combination of newly proposed techniques for estimating volatility and standardized quantiles yields several new techniques for evaluating multiple period VaR. The performance of the newly proposed VaR estimators is evaluated and compared with some of existing methods. Our simulation results and empirical

Local polynomial fitting has many exciting statistical properties which where established under i.i.d. setting. However, the need for nonlinea r time series modeling, constructing predictive intervals, understanding divergence of nonlinear time series requires the development of the theory of local polynomial fitting for dependent data. In this paper, we study the problem of estimating conditional mean functions and their derivatives via a local polynomial fit. The functions include conditional moments, conditional distribution as well as conditional density functions. Joint asymptotic normality for derivative estimation is established for both strongly mixing and mixing processes.

We develop a specification test for the transition density of a discretely-sampled continuous-time diffusion process, based on a comparison of a nonparametric estimate of the transition density or distribution function to their corresponding parametric counterparts assumed by the null hypothesis. We provide a direct comparison of the two densities for an arbitrary specification of the null parametric model using three different discrepancy measures between the null and alternative transition density and distribution functions. We establish the asymptotic null distributions of proposed test statistics and compute their power functions. The finite sample properties are critically investigated via simulation studies and are compared with other tests. Our approaches are illustrated by applications to implied volatility data and Treasury bill data.

Local quasilikelihood estimation is a useful extension of local least squares methods, but its computational cost and algorithmic convergence problems make the procedure less appealing, particularly when it is iteratively used in methods such as the backfitting algorithm, crossvalidation and bootstrapping. A onestep local quasilikelihood estimator is introduced to overcome the computational drawbacks of the local quasilikelihood method. We demonstrate that as long as the initial estimators are reasonably good, the onestep estimator has the same asymptotic behaviour as the local quasilikelihood method. Our simulation shows that the onestep estimator performs at least as well as the local quasilikelihood method for a wide range of choices of bandwidths. A datadriven bandwidth selector is proposed for the onestep estimator based on the preasymptotic substitution method of Fan and Gijbels. It is

Statistical and machine learning theory has developed several conditions ensuring that popular estimators such as the Lasso or the Dantzig selector perform well in high-dimensional sparse regression, including the restricted eigenvalue, compatibility, and q sensitivity properties. However, some of the central aspects of these conditions are not well understood. For instance, it is unknown if these conditions can be checked efficiently on any given dataset. This is problematic, because they are at the core of the theory of sparse regression. Here we provide a rigorous proof that these conditions are NP-hard to check. This shows that the conditions are computationally infeasible to verify, and raises some questions about their practical applications. However, by taking an average-case perspective instead of the worst-case view of NP-hardness, we show that a particular condition, q sensitivity, has certain

The advance of technology facilitates the collection of statistical data. Flexible and refined statistical models are widely sought in a large array of statistical problems. The question arises frequently whether or not a family of parametric or nonparametric models fit adequately the given data. In this paper we give a selective overview on nonparametric inferences using generalized likelihood ratio (<i>GLR</i>) statistics. We introduce generalized likelihood ratio statistics to test various null hypotheses against nonparametric alternatives. The trade-off between the flexibility of alternative models and the power of the statistical tests is emphasized. Well-established Wilks phenomena are discussed for a variety of semi- and non-parametric models, which sheds light on other research using <i>GLR</i> tests. Anumber of open topics worthy of further study are given in a discussion section.

Error variance estimation plays an important role in statistical inference for high-dimensional regression models. This article concerns with error variance estimation in high-dimensional sparse additive model. We study the asymptotic behavior of the traditional mean squared errors, the naive estimate of error variance, and show that it may significantly underestimate the error variance due to spurious correlations that are even higher in nonparametric models than linear models. We further propose an accurate estimate for error variance in ultrahigh-dimensional sparse additive model by effectively integrating sure independence screening and refitted cross-validation techniques. The root <i>n</i> consistency and the asymptotic normality of the resulting estimate are established. We conduct Monte Carlo simulation study to examine the finite sample performance of the newly proposed estimate. A real data example is used to

The paper studies estimation of partially linear hazard regression models with varying coefficients for multivariate survival data. A profile pseudopartiallikelihood estimation method is proposed. The estimation of the parameters of the linear part is accomplished via maximization of the profile pseudopartiallikelihood, whereas the varyingcoefficient functions are considered as nuisance parameters that are profiled out of the likelihood. It is shown that the estimators of the parameters are root <i>n</i> consistent and the estimators of the nonparametric coefficient functions achieve optimal convergence rates. Asymptotic normality is obtained for the estimators of the finite parameters and varyingcoefficient functions. Consistent estimators of the asymptotic variances are derived and empirically tested, which facilitate inference for the model. We prove that the varyingcoefficient functions can be estimated as well as if the

The non-Gaussian maximum likelihood estimator is frequently used in GARCH models with the intention of capturing heavy-tailed returns. However, unless the parametric likelihood family contains the true likelihood, the estimator is inconsistent due to density misspecification. To correct this bias, we identify an unknown scale parameter _<i>f</i> that is critical to the identification for consistency and propose a three-step quasi-maximum likelihood procedure with non-Gaussian likelihood functions. This novel approach is consistent and asymptotically normal under weak moment conditions. Moreover, it achieves better efficiency than the Gaussian alternative, particularly when the innovation error has heavy tails. We also summarize and compare the values of the scale parameter and the asymptotic efficiency for estimators based on different choices of likelihood functions with an increasing level of heaviness in the