Most papers on high-dimensional statistics are based on the assumption that none of the regressors are correlated with the regression error, namely, they are exogeneous. Yet, endogeneity arises easily in high-dimensional regression due to a large pool of regressors and this causes the inconsistency of the penalized least-squares methods and possible false scientific discoveries. A necessary condition for model selection of a very general class of penalized regression methods is given, which allows us to prove formally the inconsistency claim. To cope with the possible endogeneity, we construct a novel penalized focussed generalized method of moments (FGMM) criterion function and offer a new optimization algorithm. The FGMM is not a smooth function. To establish its asymptotic properties, we first study the model selection consistency and an oracle property for a general class of penalized regression methods. These results are then used to show that the FGMM possesses an oracle property even in the presence of endogenous predictors, and that the solution is also near global minimum under the over-identification assumption. Finally, we also show how the semi-parametric efficiency of estimation can be achieved via a two-step approach.

We develop a specification test for the transition density of a discretely sampled continuous-time jump-diffusion process, based on a comparison of a nonparametric estimate of the transition density or distribution function with their corresponding parametric counterparts assumed by the null hypothesis. As a special case, our method applies to pure diffusions. We provide a direct comparison of the two densities for an arbitrary specification of the null parametric model using three different discrepancy measures between the null and alternative transition density and distribution functions. We establish the asymptotic null distributions of proposed test statistics and compute their power functions. We investigate the finite-sample properties through simulations and compare them with those of other tests. This article has supplementary material online.

Value-at-risk measures the worst loss to be expected of a portfolio over a given time horizon at a given confidence level. Calculation of VaR frequently involves estimating the volatility of return processes and quantiles of standardized returns. In this paper, several semiparametric techniques are introduced to estimate the volatilities. In addition, both parametric and nonparametric techniques are proposed to estimate the quantiles of standardized return processes. The newly proposed techniques also have the flexibility to adapt automatically to the changes in the dynamics of market prices over time. The combination of newly proposed techniques for estimating volatility and standardized quantiles yields several new techniques for evaluating multiple period VaR. The performance of the newly proposed VaR estimators is evaluated and compared with some of existing methods. Our simulation results and empirical