Value at Risk (VaR) is a fundamental tool for managing market risks. It measures the worst loss to be expected of a portfolio over a given time horizon under normal market conditions at a given confidence level. Calculation of VaR frequently involves estimating the volatility of return processes and quantiles of standardized returns. In this paper, several semiparametric techniques are introduced to estimate the volatilities of the market prices of a portfolio. In addition, both parametric and nonparametric techniques are proposed to estimate the quantiles of standardized return processes. The newly proposed techniques also have the flexibility to adapt automatically to the changes in the dynamics of market prices over time. Their statistical efficiencies are studied both theoretically and empirically. The combination of newly proposed techniques for estimating volatility and standardized quantiles yields several new

Motivated by the problem of colocalization analysis in fluorescence microscopic imaging, we study in this paper structured detection of correlated regions between two random processes observed on a common domain. We argue that although intuitive, direct use of the maximum log-likelihood statistic suffers from potential bias and substantially reduced power, and introduce a simple size-based normalization to overcome this problem. We show that scanning with the proposed size-corrected likelihood ratio statistics leads to optimal correlation detection over a large collection of structured correlation detection problems.

In event studies of capital market efficiency, an earnings surprise has historically been measured by the consensus error, defined as earnings minus the consensus or average of professional forecasts. The rationale is that the consensus is an accurate measure of the markets expectation of earnings. But since forecasts can be biased due to conflicts of interest and some investors can see through these conflicts, this rationale is flawed and the consensus error a biased measure of an earnings surprise. We show that the fraction of forecasts that miss on the same side (FOM), by ignoring the size of the misses, is less sensitive to such bias and a better measure of an earnings surprise. As a result, FOM out-performs the consensus error and its related robust statistics in explaining stock price movements around and subsequent to the announcement date.

In this paper, we study robust covariance estimation under the approximate factor model with observed factors. We propose a novel framework to first estimate the initial joint covariance matrix of the observed data and the factors, and then use it to recover the covariance matrix of the observed data. We prove that once the initial matrix estimator is good enough to maintain the element-wise optimal rate, the whole procedure will generate an estimated covariance with desired properties. For data with bounded fourth moments, we propose to use adaptive Huber loss minimization to give the initial joint covariance estimation. This approach is applicable to a much wider class of distributions, beyond sub-Gaussian and elliptical distributions. We also present an asymptotic result for adaptive Hubers M-estimator with a diverging parameter. The conclusions are demonstrated by extensive simulations and real data analysis.

In this paper, we study, in some new ways, the estimation of unimodal densities. Several methods for estimating unimodal densities are proposed: plug-in MLE, pregrouping techniques, linear spline MLE. Based on the maximum likelihood method, an automatic procedure for estimating a unimodal density as well as its mode is proposed. We also give asymptotic theory for the proposed estimators. An important consequence of this study is that having to estimate the location of a mode does not affect the limiting behavior of the proposed unimodal density estimate. Simulation studies illustrate the proposed methods.