The leverage effect refers to the generally negative correlation between an asset return and its changes of volatility. A natural estimate consists in using the empirical correlation between the daily returns and the changes of daily volatility estimated from high frequency data. The puzzle lies in the fact that such an intuitively natural estimate yields nearly zero correlation for most assets tested, despite the many economic reasons for expecting the estimated correlation to be negative. To better understand the sources of the puzzle, we analyze the different asymptotic biases that are involved in high frequency estimation of the leverage effect, including biases due to discretization errors, to smoothing errors in estimating spot volatilities, to estimation error, and to market microstructure noise. This decomposition enables us to propose novel bias correction methods for estimating the leverage effect.

In this paper, we study, in some new ways, the estimation of unimodal densities. Several methods for estimating unimodal densities are proposed: plug-in MLE, pregrouping techniques, linear spline MLE. Based on the maximum likelihood method, an automatic procedure for estimating a unimodal density as well as its mode is proposed. We also give asymptotic theory for the proposed estimators. An important consequence of this study is that having to estimate the location of a mode does not affect the limiting behavior of the proposed unimodal density estimate. Simulation studies illustrate the proposed methods.

In statistics and machine learning, people are often interested in the eigenvectors (or singular vectors) of certain matrices (eg covariance matrices, data matrices, etc). However, those matrices are usually perturbed by noises or statistical errors, either from random sampling or structural patterns. One usually employs Davis-Kahan \sin theorem to bound the difference between the eigenvectors of a matrix \sin and those of a perturbed matrix \sin , in terms of \sin norm. In this paper, we prove that when \sin is a low-rank and incoherent matrix, the \sin norm perturbation bound of singular vectors (or eigenvectors in the symmetric case) is smaller by a factor of \sin or \sin for left and right vectors, where \sin and \sin are the matrix dimensions. The power of this new perturbation result is shown in robust covariance estimation, particularly when random variables have heavy tails. There, we propose new robust covariance estimators and establish their asymptotic properties using the newly developed perturbation bound. Our theoretical results are verified through extensive numerical experiments.

Variable selection is vital to statistical data analyses. Many of procedures in use are ad hoc stepwise selection procedures, which are computationally expensiveandignore stochastic errors in the variable selection process of previous steps. An automatic and simultaneous variable selection procedure can be obtained by using a penalized likelihood method. In traditional linear models, the best subset selection and stepwise deletion methods coincide with a penalized leastsquares method when design matrices are orthonormal. In this paper, we propose a few new approaches to selecting variables for linear models, robust regression models and generalized linear models based on a penalized likelihood approach. A family of thresholding functions are proposed. The LASSO proposed by Tibshirani (1996) is a member of the penalized leastsquares with the # #-penalty. A smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) penalty function is introduced to ameliorate the properties of # #-penalty. A unied algorithm is introduced, which is backed up by statistical theory. The new approaches are compared with the ordinary leastsquares methods, the garrote method by Breiman (1995) and the LASSO method by Tibshirani (1996). Our simulation results show that the newly proposed methods compare favorably with other approaches as an automatic variable selection technique. Because of simultaneous selection of variables and estimation of parameters, we are able to give a simple estimated standard error formula, which is tested to be accurate enough for practical applications. Two real data examples illustrate the versatility and eectiveness of the

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