An aggregated method of nonparametric estimators based on time-domain and state-domain estimators is proposed and studied. To attenuate the <i>curse of dimensionality</i>, we propose a factor modeling strategy. We first investigate the asymptotic behavior of nonparametric estimators of the volatility matrix in the time domain and in the state domain. Asymptotic normality is separately established for nonparametric estimators in the time domain and state domain. These two estimators are asymptotically independent. Hence, they can be combined, through a dynamic weighting scheme, to improve the efficiency of volatility matrix estimation. The optimal dynamic weights are derived, and it is shown that the aggregated estimator uniformly dominates volatility matrix estimators using time-domain or state-domain smoothing alone. A simulation study, based on an essentially affine model for the term structure, is

Recent proposals for implementation of kernel-based nonparametric curve estimators are seen to be faster than naive direct implementations by factors up into the hundreds. The main ideas behind the two different approaches are made clear. Careful speed comparisons in a variety of settings and using a variety of machines and software are done. Various issues on computational accuracy and stability are also discussed. Our speed tests show that the fast methods are as fast or somewhat faster than methods traditionally considered very fast, such as LOWESS and smoothing splines.

Many data mining and statistical machine learning algorithms have been developed to select a subset of covariates to associate with a response variable. Spurious discoveries can easily arise in high-dimensional data analysis due to enormous possibilities of such selections. How can we know statistically our discoveries better than those by chance? In this paper, we define a measure of goodness of spurious fit, which shows how good a response variable can be fitted by an optimally selected subset of covariates under the null model, and propose a simple and effective LAMM algorithm to compute it. It coincides with the maximum spurious correlation for linear models and can be regarded as a generalized maximum spurious correlation. We derive the asymptotic distribution of such goodness of spurious fit for generalized linear models and L1 regression. Such an asymptotic distribution depends on the sample size, ambient dimension, the number of variables used in the fit, and the covariance information. It can be consistently estimated by multiplier bootstrapping and used as a benchmark to guard against spurious discoveries. It can also be applied to model selection, which considers only candidate models with goodness of fits better than those by spurious fits. The theory and method are convincingly illustrated by simulated examples and an application to the binary outcomes from German Neuroblastoma Trials.

We discuss the difficulties of estimating quadratic functionals based on observations Y (t) from the white noise model Y (t) where Y (t) is a standard Wiener process on Y (t) . The optimal rates of convergence (as Y (t) ) for estimating quadratic functionals under certain geometric constraints are found. Specifically, the optimal rates of estimating Y (t) under hyperrectangular constraints Y (t) and weighted Y (t) -body constraints Y (t) are computed explicitly, where Y (t) is the Y (t) th Fourier-Bessel coefficient of the unknown function Y (t) . We develop lower bounds based on testing two highly composite hypercubes and address their advantages. The attainable lower bounds are found by applying the hardest one-dimensional approach as well as the hypercube method. We demonstrate that for estimating regular quadratic functionals [ie, the functionals which can be estimated

We study the enhanced diffusivity in the so called elephant random walk model with stops (ERWS) by including symmetric random walk steps at small probability \epsilon . At any \epsilon , the large time behavior transitions from sub-diffusive at \epsilon to diffusive in a wedge shaped parameter regime where the diffusivity is strictly above that in the un-perturbed ERWS model in the \epsilon limit. The perturbed ERWS model is shown to be solvable with the first two moments and their asymptotics calculated exactly in both one and two space dimensions. The model provides a discrete analytical setting of the residual diffusion phenomenon known for the passive scalar transport in chaotic flows (eg generated by time periodic cellular flows and statistically sub-diffusive) as molecular diffusivity tends to zero.