We develop the orbit method in a quantitative form, along the lines of microlocal analysis, and apply it to the analytic theory of automorphic forms. Our main global application is an asymptotic formula for averages of Gan-Gross-Prasad periods in arbitrary rank. The automorphic form on the larger group is held fixed, while that on the smaller group varies over a family of size roughly the fourth root of the conductors of the corresponding L-functions. Ratner’s results on measure classification provide an important input to the proof. Our local results include asymptotic expansions for certain special functions arising from representations of higher-rank Lie groups, such as the relative characters defined by matrix coefficient integrals as in the Ichino-Ikeda conjecture.

In his seminal 1976 paper, Bill Thurston observed that a closed leaf S of a codimension‑1 foliation on a compact 3‑manifold has Euler characteristic equal, up to sign, to the Euler class of the foliation evaluated on [S], the homology class represented by S. The main result of this paper is a converse for taut foliations: if the Euler class of a taut foliation F evaluated on [S] equals up to sign the Euler characteristic of S and the underlying manifold is hyperbolic, then there exists another taut foliation F′ such that S is homologous to a union of leaves and such that the plane field of F′ is homotopic to that of F. In particular, F and F′ have the same Euler class. In the same paper Thurston proved that taut foliations on closed hyperbolic 3‑manifolds have Euler class of norm at most one, and conjectured that, conversely, any integral cohomology class with norm equal to one is the Euler class of a taut foliation. This is the second of two papers that together give a negative answer to Thurston’s conjecture. In the first paper, counterexamples were constructed assuming the main result of this paper.

In 1976, Thurston proved that taut foliations on closed hyperbolic 3-manifolds have Euler class of norm at most 1, and conjectured that conversely, any integral second cohomology class with norm equal to one is the Euler class of a taut foliation. This is the first from a series of two papers that together give a negative answer to Thurston’s conjecture. Here counter-examples have been constructed conditional on the fully marked surface theorem. In the second paper, joint with David Gabai, a proof of the fully marked surface theorem is given.

An irreducible integrable connection (E,∇) on a smooth projective complex variety X is called rigid if it gives rise to an isolated point of the corresponding moduli space M_{dR}(X). According to Simpson’s motivicity conjecture, irreducible rigid flat connections are of geometric origin, that is, arise as subquotients of a Gauss-Manin connection of a family of smooth projective varieties defined on an open dense subvariety of X. In this article we study mod-p reductions of irreducible rigid connections and establish results which confirm Simpson’s prediction. In particular, for large p, we prove that p-curvatures of mod-p reductions of irreducible rigid flat connections are nilpotent, and building on this result, we construct an F-isocrystalline realization for irreducible rigid flat connections. More precisely, we prove that there exist smooth models X_R and (E_R,∇_R) of X and (E,∇), over a finite-type ring R, such that for every Witt ring W(k) of a finite field k and every homomorphism R→W(k), the p-adic completion of the base change (\hat E_{W(k)}, \hat ∇_{W(k)}) on \hat X_{W(k)} represents an F-isocrystal. Subsequently, we show that irreducible rigid flat connections with vanishing p-curvatures are unitary. This allows us to prove new cases of the Grothendieck–Katz p-curvature conjecture. We also prove the existence of a complete companion correspondence for F-isocrystals stemming from irreducible cohomologically rigid connections.

It follows from work of Perelman that any finite-time singularity of the Ricci flow on a compact 3-manifold is modeled on an ancient ϰ-solution. We prove that every non-compact ancient ϰ-solution in dimension 3 is isometric to a family of shrinking cylinders (or a quotient thereof), or to the Bryant soliton. This confirms a conjecture of Perelman.