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This paper attempts to relate some ideas of Grothendieck in his Esquisse d'un programme and some of the recent results on 2-dimensional topology and geometry. Especially, we shall discuss the Teichmller theory, the mapping class groups, $ SL (2,\bold C) $ representation variety of surface groups, and Thurston's theory of measured laminations.

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Value-at-risk measures the worst loss to be expected of a portfolio over a given time horizon at a given confidence level. Calculation of VaR frequently involves estimating the volatility of return processes and quantiles of standardized returns. In this paper, several semiparametric techniques are introduced to estimate the volatilities. In addition, both parametric and nonparametric techniques are proposed to estimate the quantiles of standardized return processes. The newly proposed techniques also have the flexibility to adapt automatically to the changes in the dynamics of market prices over time. The combination of newly proposed techniques for estimating volatility and standardized quantiles yields several new techniques for evaluating multiple period VaR. The performance of the newly proposed VaR estimators is evaluated and compared with some of existing methods. Our simulation results and empirical

We study 2d and 3d gravity theories on spacetimes with causal (timelike or null) codimension one boundaries while allowing for variations in the position of the boundary. We construct the corresponding solution phase space and specify boundary degrees freedom by analysing boundary (surface) charges labelling them. We discuss Y and W freedoms and change of slicing in the solution space. For D dimensional case we find D + 1 surface charges, which are generic functions over the causal boundary. We show that there exist solution space slicings in which the charges are integrable. For the 3d case there exists an integrable slicing where charge algebra takes the form of Heisenberg ⊕ A3 where A3 is two copies of Virasoro at Brown-Henneaux central charge for AdS3 gravity and BMS3 for the 3d flat space gravity.