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In this paper, we introduce a motivic version of To¨en’s derived Hall algebra. Then we point out that the two kinds of Hall algebras in the sense of To¨en and Kontsevich–Soibelman, respectively, are Drinfeld dual pairs, not only in the classical case (by counting over finite fields) but also in the motivic version. Consequently they are canonically isomorphic. All proofs, including that for the most important associative property, are deduced in a self-contained way by analyzing the symmetry properties around the octahedral axiom, a method we used previously

Economists historically measure the degree to which the market is surprised by an earnings announcement by the consensus forecast error, defined as difference between the actual earnings and the consensus forecast. The consensus might be calculated using either the mean or median of security analysts forecasts. The premise of this measure is that the consensus forecast is a good proxy for the markets expectation of earnings. Hence the consensus forecast error captures how surprised the market is when the earnings is announced. The consensus forecast error is a building block of a host of studies across finance, accounting and economics (see for a survey of event studies in Kothari (2001)). For instance, in finance and accounting, it is used in event studies of how efficiently markets react to earnings announcements. Efficient market studies when it comes to bond or currency markets and macroeconomic

We study the isoperimetric structure of asymptotically flat Riemannian 3-manifolds (M, g) that are C0-asymptotic to Schwarzschild of mass m > 0. Refining an argument due to H. Bray, we obtain an effective volume comparison theorem in Schwarzschild. We use it to show that isoperimetric regions exist in (M, g) for all sufficiently large volumes, and that they are close to centered coordinate spheres. This implies that the volume-preserving stable constant mean curvature spheres constructed by G. Huisken and S.-T. Yau as well as R. Ye as perturbations of large centered coordinate spheres minimize area among all competing surfaces that enclose the same volume. This confirms a conjecture of H. Bray. Our results are consistent with the uniqueness results for volumepreserving stable constant mean curvature surfaces in initial data sets obtained by G. Huisken and S.-T. Yau and strengthened by J. Qing and G. Tian. The additional hypotheses that the surfaces be spherical and far out in the asymptotic region in their results are not necessary in our work.