MathSciDoc: An Archive for Mathematician ∫

Additive regression models have turned out to be a useful statistical tool in analyses of high-dimensional data sets. Recently, an estimator of additive components has been introduced by Linton and Nielsen which is based on marginal integration. The explicit definition of this estimator makes possible a fast computation and allows an asymptotic distribution theory. In this paper an asymptotic treatment of this estimate is offered for several models. A modification of this procedure is introduced. We consider weighted marginal integration for local linear fits and we show that this estimate has the following advantages.

I would like to congratulate Professor Antoniadis for successfully outlining the current state-of-art of wavelet applications in statistics. Since wavelet techniques were introduced to statistics in the early 90s, the applications of wavelet techniques have mushroomed. There is a vast forest of wavelet theory and techniques in statistics and one can find himself easily lost in the jungle. The review by Antoniadis, ranging from linear wavelets to nonlinear wavelets, addressing both theoretical issues and practical relevance, gives in-depth coverage of the wavelet applications in statistics and guides one entering easily into the realm of wavelets.

This article proposes a consistent and efficient estimator of the high-frequency covariance (quadratic covariation) of two arbitrary assets, observed asynchronously with market microstructure noise. This estimator is built on the marriage of the quasimaximum likelihood estimator of the quadratic variation and the proposed generalized synchronization scheme and thus is not influenced by the Epps effect. Moreover, the estimation procedure is free of tuning parameters or bandwidths and is readily implementable. Monte Carlo simulations show the advantage of this estimator by comparing it with a variety of estimators with specific synchronization methods. The empirical studies of six foreign exchange future contracts illustrate the time-varying correlations of the currencies during the 2008 global financial crisis, demonstrating the similarities and differences in their roles as key currencies in the global market.

Local polynomial fitting has many exciting statistical properties which where established under i.i.d. setting. However, the need for nonlinea r time series modeling, constructing predictive intervals, understanding divergence of nonlinear time series requires the development of the theory of local polynomial fitting for dependent data. In this paper, we study the problem of estimating conditional mean functions and their derivatives via a local polynomial fit. The functions include conditional moments, conditional distribution as well as conditional density functions. Joint asymptotic normality for derivative estimation is established for both strongly mixing and mixing processes.

Several new tests are proposed for examining the adequacy of a family of parametric models against large nonparametric alternatives. These tests formally check if the bias vector of residuals from parametric fits is negligible by using the adaptive Neyman test and other methods. The testing procedures formalize the traditional model diagnostic tools based on residual plots. We examine the rates of contiguous alternatives that can be detected consistently by the adaptive Neyman test. Applications of the procedures to the partially linear models are thoroughly discussed. Our simulation studies show that the new testing procedures are indeed powerful and omnibus. The power of the proposed tests is comparable to the <i>F</i>-test statistic even in the situations where the <i>F</i> test is known to be suitable and can be far more powerful than the <i>F</i>-test statistic in other situations. An application to testing linear models versus

This paper gives a brief overview of the nonparametric techniques that are useful for financial econometric problems. The problems include estimation and inference for instantaneous returns and volatility functions of time-homogeneous and time-dependent diffusion processes, and estimation of transition densities and state price densities. We first briefly describe the problems and then outline the main techniques and main results. Some useful probabilistic aspects of diffusion processes are also briefly summarized to facilitate our presentation and applications.

This article introduces the large portfolio selection using gross-exposure constraints. It shows that with gross-exposure constraints, the empirically selected optimal portfolios based on estimated covariance matrices have similar performance to the theoretical optimal ones and there is no error accumulation effect from estimation of vast covariance matrices. This gives theoretical justification to the empirical results by Jagannathan and Ma. It also shows that the no-short-sale portfolio can be improved by allowing some short positions. The applications to portfolio selection, tracking, and improvements are also addressed. The utility of our new approach is illustrated by simulation and empirical studies on the 100 FamaFrench industrial portfolios and the 600 stocks randomly selected from Russell 3000.

Variance estimation is a fundamental problem in statistical modelling. In ultrahigh dimensional linear regression where the dimensionality is much larger than the sample size, traditional variance estimation techniques are not applicable. Recent advances in variable selection in ultrahigh dimensional linear regression make this problem accessible. One of the major problems in ultrahigh dimensional regression is the high spurious correlation between the unobserved realized noise and some of the predictors. As a result, the realized noises are actually predicted when extra irrelevant variables are selected, leading to a serious underestimate of the level of noise. We propose a twostage refitted procedure via a data splitting technique, called refitted crossvalidation, to attenuate the influence of irrelevant variables with high spurious correlations. Our asymptotic results show that the resulting procedure performs as

Suppose that we have n observations from the convolution model Y = X+, where X and are the independent unobservable random variables, and is measurement error with a known distribution. We will discuss the asymptotic normality for deconvolving kernel density estimators of the unknown density f_{X}(.) of X by assuming either the tail of the characteristic function of behaves as f_{X}(.) (which is called supersmooth error), or the tail of the characteristic function is of order f_{X}(.) (called ordinary smooth error). Asymptotic normality of estimating the functional f_{X}(.) is also addressed.

The estimation of large covariance and precision matrices is fundamental in modern multivariate analysis. However, problems arise from the statistical analysis of large panel economic and financial data. The covariance matrix reveals marginal correlations between variables, while the precision matrix encodes conditional correlations between pairs of variables given the remaining variables. In this paper, we provide a selective review of several recent developments on the estimation of large covariance and precision matrices. We focus on two general approaches: a rankbased method and a factormodelbased method. Theories and applications of both approaches are presented. These methods are expected to be widely applicable to the analysis of economic and financial data.