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We develop an auto-reservoir computing framework, Auto-Reservoir Neural Network (ARNN), to efficiently and accurately make multi-step-ahead predictions based on a short-term high-dimensional time series. Different from traditional reservoir computing whose reservoir is an external dynamical system irrelevant to the target system, ARNN directly transforms the observed high-dimensional dynamics as its reservoir, which maps the high-dimensional/spatial data to the future temporal values of a target variable based on our spatiotemporal information (STI) transformation. Thus, the multi-step prediction of the target variable is achieved in an accurate and computationally efficient manner. ARNN is successfully applied to both representative models and real-world datasets, all of which show satisfactory performance in the multi-step-ahead prediction, even when the data are peturbed by noise and when the system is time-varying. Actually, such ARNN transformation equivalently expands the sample size and thus has great potential in practical applications in artificial intelligence and machine learning.

We study the problem of globally recovering a dictionary from a set of signals via ℓ1-minimization. We assume that the signals are generated as i.i.d. random linear combinations of the K atoms from a complete reference dictionary D∗∈RK×K, where the linear combination coefficients are from either a Bernoulli type model or exact sparse model. First, we obtain a necessary and sufficient norm condition for the reference dictionary D∗ to be a sharp local minimum of the expected ℓ1 objective function. Our result substantially extends that of Wu and Yu (2015) and allows the combination coefficient to be non-negative. Secondly, we obtain an explicit bound on the region within which the objective value of the reference dictionary is minimal. Thirdly, we show that the reference dictionary is the unique sharp local minimum, thus establishing the first known global property of ℓ1-minimization dictionary learning. Motivated by the theoretical results, we introduce a perturbation based test to determine whether a dictionary is a sharp local minimum of the objective function. In addition, we also propose a new dictionary learning algorithm based on Block Coordinate Descent, called DL-BCD, which is guaranteed to decrease the obective function monotonically. Simulation studies show that DL-BCD has competitive performance in terms of recovery rate compared to other state-of-the-art dictionary learning algorithms when the reference dictionary is generated from random Gaussian matrices.

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Nonconvex reformulations via low-rank factorization for stochastic convex semidefinite optimization problem have attracted arising attention due to their empirical efficiency and scalability. Compared with the original convex formulations, the nonconvex ones typically involve much fewer variables, allowing them to scale to scenarios with millions of variables. However, it opens a new challenge that under what conditions the nonconvex stochastic algorithms may find the population minimizer within the optimal statistical precision despite their empirical success in applications. In this paper, we provide an answer that the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) method can be adapted to solve the nonconvex reformulation of the original convex problem, with a global linear convergence when using a fixed step size, i.e., converging exponentially fast to the population minimizer within an optimal statistical precision in the restricted strongly convex case. If a diminishing step size is adopted, the bad effect caused by the variance of gradients on the optimization error can be eliminated but the rate is dropped to be sublinear. The core of our treatment relies on a novel second-order descent lemma, which is more general than the existing best result in the literature and improves the analysis on both online and batch algorithms. The developed theoretical results and effectiveness of the suggested SGD are also verified by a series of experiments.

We formulate the Riemannian calculus of the probability set embedded with L^2-Wasserstein metric. This is an initial work of transport information geometry. Our investigation starts with the probability simplex (probability manifold) supported on vertices of a finite graph. The main idea is to embed the probability manifold as a submanifold of the positive measure space with a nonlinear metric tensor. Here the nonlinearity comes from the linear weighted Laplacian operator. By this viewpoint, we establish torsion-free Christoffel symbols, Levi-Civita connections, curvature tensors, and volume forms in the probability manifold by Euclidean coordinates. As a consequence, the Jacobi equation, Laplace-Beltrami and Hessian operators on the probability manifold are derived. These geometric computations are also provided in the infinite-dimensional density space (density manifold) supported on a finite-dimensional manifold. In particular, an identity is given connecting the Baker-{É}mery Γ2 operator (carr{é} du champ it{é}r{é}) by connecting Fisher-Rao information metric and optimal transport metric. Several examples are demonstrated.

We define the notion of a Ricci curvature lower bound for parametrized statistical models. Following the seminal ideas of Lott–Sturm–Villani, we define this notion based on the geodesic convexity of the Kullback–Leibler divergence in a Wasserstein statistical manifold, that is, a manifold of probability distributions endowed with a Wasserstein metric tensor structure. Within these definitions, which are based on Fisher information matrix and Wasserstein Christoffel symbols, the Ricci curvature is related to both, information geometry and Wasserstein geometry. These definitions allow us to formulate bounds on the convergence rate of Wasserstein gradient flows and information functional inequalities in parameter space. We discuss examples of Ricci curvature lower bounds and convergence rates in exponential family models.