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Value-at-risk measures the worst loss to be expected of a portfolio over a given time horizon at a given confidence level. Calculation of VaR frequently involves estimating the volatility of return processes and quantiles of standardized returns. In this paper, several semiparametric techniques are introduced to estimate the volatilities. In addition, both parametric and nonparametric techniques are proposed to estimate the quantiles of standardized return processes. The newly proposed techniques also have the flexibility to adapt automatically to the changes in the dynamics of market prices over time. The combination of newly proposed techniques for estimating volatility and standardized quantiles yields several new techniques for evaluating multiple period VaR. The performance of the newly proposed VaR estimators is evaluated and compared with some of existing methods. Our simulation results and empirical

Error variance estimation plays an important role in statistical inference for high-dimensional regression models. This article concerns with error variance estimation in high-dimensional sparse additive model. We study the asymptotic behavior of the traditional mean squared errors, the naive estimate of error variance, and show that it may significantly underestimate the error variance due to spurious correlations that are even higher in nonparametric models than linear models. We further propose an accurate estimate for error variance in ultrahigh-dimensional sparse additive model by effectively integrating sure independence screening and refitted cross-validation techniques. The root <i>n</i> consistency and the asymptotic normality of the resulting estimate are established. We conduct Monte Carlo simulation study to examine the finite sample performance of the newly proposed estimate. A real data example is used to

This paper studies model selection consistency for high dimensional sparse regression when data exhibits both cross-sectional and serial dependency. Most commonly-used model selection methods fail to consistently recover the true model when the covariates are highly correlated. Motivated by econometric studies, we consider the case where covariate dependence can be reduced through factor model, and propose a consistent strategy named Factor-Adjusted Regularized Model Selection (FarmSelect). By separating the latent factors from idiosyncratic components, we transform the problem from model selection with highly correlated covariates to that with weakly correlated variables. Model selection consistency as well as optimal rates of convergence are obtained under mild conditions. Numerical studies demonstrate the nice finite sample performance in terms of both model selection and out-of-sample prediction. Moreover, our method is flexible in a sense that it pays no price for weakly correlated and uncorrelated cases. Our method is applicable to a wide range of high dimensional sparse regression problems. An R-package FarmSelect is also provided for implementation.

This book presents an overview of recent developments in biostatistics and bioinformatics. Written by active researchers in these emerging areas, it is intended to give graduate students and new researchers an idea of where the frontiers of biostatistics and bioinformatics are as well as a forum to learn common techniques in use, so that they can advance the fields via developing new techniques and new results. Extensive references are provided so that researchers can follow the threads to learn more comprehensively what the literature is and to conduct their own research. In particulars, the book covers three important and rapidly advancing topics in biostatistics: analysis of survival and longitudinal data, statistical methods for epidemiology, and bioinformatics.