Many data mining and statistical machine learning algorithms have been developed to select a subset of covariates to associate with a response variable. Spurious discoveries can easily arise in high-dimensional data analysis due to enormous possibilities of such selections. How can we know statistically our discoveries better than those by chance? In this paper, we define a measure of goodness of spurious fit, which shows how good a response variable can be fitted by an optimally selected subset of covariates under the null model, and propose a simple and effective LAMM algorithm to compute it. It coincides with the maximum spurious correlation for linear models and can be regarded as a generalized maximum spurious correlation. We derive the asymptotic distribution of such goodness of spurious fit for generalized linear models and L1 regression. Such an asymptotic distribution depends on the sample size, ambient dimension, the number of variables used in the fit, and the covariance information. It can be consistently estimated by multiplier bootstrapping and used as a benchmark to guard against spurious discoveries. It can also be applied to model selection, which considers only candidate models with goodness of fits better than those by spurious fits. The theory and method are convincingly illustrated by simulated examples and an application to the binary outcomes from German Neuroblastoma Trials.

The modern financial industry has been required to deal with large and diverse portfolios in a variety of asset classes often with limited market data available. Financial Signal Processing and Machine Learning unifies a number of recent advances made in signal processing and machine learning for the design and management of investment portfolios and financial engineering. This book bridges the gap between these disciplines, offering the latest information on key topics including characterizing statistical dependence and correlation in high dimensions, constructing effective and robust risk measures, and their use in portfolio optimization and rebalancing. The book focuses on signal processing approaches to model return, momentum, and mean reversion, addressing theoretical and implementation aspects. It highlights the connections between portfolio theory, sparse learning and compressed sensing, sparse eigen-portfolios, robust optimization, non-Gaussian data-driven risk measures, graphical models, causal analysis through temporal-causal modeling, and large-scale copula-based approaches. Key features: Highlights signal processing and machine learning as key approaches to quantitative finance. Offers advanced mathematical tools for high-dimensional portfolio construction, monitoring, and post-trade analysis problems. Presents portfolio theory, sparse learning and compressed sensing, sparsity methods for investment portfolios. including eigen-portfolios, model return, momentum, mean reversion and non-Gaussian data-driven risk measures with real-world applications of these techniques. Includes contributions from leading

Askewing'method is shown to effectively reduce the order of bias of locally parametric estimators, and at the same time retain positivity properties. The technique involves first calculating the usual locally parametric approximation in the neighbourhood of a point x'that is a short distance from the place x where the we wish to estimate the density, and then evaluating this approximation at x. By way of comparison, the usual locally parametric approach takes x'= x. In our construction, x'-x depends in a very simple way on the bandwidth and the kernel, and not at all on the unknown density. Using skewing in this simple form reduces the order of bias from the square to the cube of bandwidth; and taking the average of two estimators computed in this way further reduces bias, to the fourth power of bandwidth. On the other hand, variance increases only by at most a moderate constant factor.

This paper studies a weighted local linear regression smoother for longitudinal/clustered data, which takes a form similar to the classical weighted least squares estimate. As a hybrid of the methods of Chen and Jin (2005) and Wang (2003), the proposed local linear smoother maintains the advantages of both methods in computational and theoretical simplicity, variance minimization and bias reduction. Moreover, the proposed smoother is optimal in the sense that it attains linear minimax efficiency when the within-cluster correlation is correctly specified. In the special case that the joint density of covariates in a cluster exists and is continuous, any working within-cluster correlation would lead to linear minimax efficiency for the proposed method.

Factor modeling is an essential tool for exploring intrinsic dependence structures among high-dimensional random variables. Much progress has been made for estimating the covariance matrix from a high-dimensional factor model. However, the blessing of dimensionality has not yet been fully embraced in the literature: much of the available data are often ignored in constructing covariance matrix estimates. If our goal is to accurately estimate a covariance matrix of a set of targeted variables, shall we employ additional data, which are beyond the variables of interest, in the estimation? In this article, we provide sufficient conditions for an affirmative answer, and further quantify its gain in terms of Fisher information and convergence rate. In fact, even an oracle-like result (as if all the factors were known) can be achieved when a sufficiently large number of variables is used. The idea of using data as much as possible