High dimensionality comparable to sample size is common in many statistical problems. We examine covariance matrix estimation in the asymptotic framework that the dimensionality p tends to as the sample size n increases. Motivated by the Arbitrage Pricing Theory in finance, a multi-factor model is employed to reduce dimensionality and to estimate the covariance matrix. The factors are observable and the number of factors K is allowed to grow with p. We investigate the impact of p and K on the performance of the model-based covariance matrix estimator. Under mild assumptions, we have established convergence rates and asymptotic normality of the model-based estimator. Its performance is compared with that of the sample covariance matrix. We identify situations under which the factor approach increases performance substantially or marginally. The impacts of covariance matrix estimation on optimal

Varying-coefficient partially linear models are frequently used in statistical modelling, but their estimation and inference have not been systematically studied. This paper proposes a profile least-squares technique for estimating the parametric component and studies the asymptotic normality of the profile least-squares estimator. The main focus is the examination of whether the generalized likelihood technique developed by Fan et al. is applicable to the testing problem for the parametric component of semiparametric models. We introduce the profile likelihood ratio test and demonstrate that it follows an asymptotically 2 distribution under the null hypothesis. This not only unveils a new Wilks type of phenomenon, but also provides a simple and useful method for semiparametric inferences. In addition, the Wald statistic for semiparametric models is introduced and demonstrated to possess a sampling property similar

Gene expression data from microarrays are being applied to predict preclinical and clinical endpoints, but the reliability of these predictions has not been established. In the MAQC-II project, 36 independent teams analyzed six microarray data sets to generate predictive models for classifying a sample with respect to one of 13 endpoints indicative of lung or liver toxicity in rodents, or of breast cancer, multiple myeloma or neuroblastoma in humans. In total,> 30,000 models were built using many combinations of analytical methods. The teams generated predictive models without knowing the biological meaning of some of the endpoints and, to mimic clinical reality, tested the models on data that had not been used for training. We found that model performance depended largely on the endpoint and team proficiency and that different approaches generated models of similar performance. The conclusions and

When estimating a mean regression function and its derivatives, locally weighted least squares regression has proven to be a very attractive technique. The present paper focuses on the important issue of how to select the smoothing parameter or bandwidth. In the case of estimating curves with a complicated structure, a variable bandwidth is desirable. Furthermore, the bandwidth should be indicated by the data themselves. Recent developments in nonparametric smoothing techniques inspired us to propose such a datadriven bandwidth selection procedure, which can be used to select both constant and variable bandwidths. The idea is based on a residual squares criterion along with a good approximation of the bias and variance of the estimator. The procedure can be applied to select bandwidths not only for estimating the regression curve but also for estimating its derivatives. The resulting estimation

Varying coefficient models are a useful extension of classical linear models. They arise naturally when one wishes to examine how regression coefficients change over different groups characterized by certain covariates such as age. The appeal of these models is that the coef. cient functions can easily be estimated via a simple local regression. This yields a simple one-step estimation procedure. We show that such a one-step method cannot be optimal when different coefficient functions admit different degrees of smoothness. This drawback can be repaired by using our proposed two-step estimation procedure. The asymptotic mean-squared error for the two-step procedure is obtained and is shown to achieve the optimal rate of convergence. A few simulation studies show that the gain by the two-step procedure can be quite substantial. The methodology is illustrated by an application to an environmental data set.