Time- and state-domain methods are two common approaches to nonparametric prediction. Whereas the former uses data predominantly from recent history, the latter relies mainly on historical information. Combining these two pieces of valuable information is an interesting challenge in statistics. We surmount this problem by dynamically integrating information from both the time and state domains. The estimators from these two domains are optimally combined based on a data-driven weighting strategy, which provides a more efficient estimator of volatility. Asymptotic normality is separately established for the time domain, the state domain, and the integrated estimators. By comparing the efficiency of the estimators, we demonstrate that the proposed integrated estimator uniformly dominates the other two estimators. The proposed dynamic integration approach is also applicable to other estimation problems in time

We develop an expectation-maximization algorithm with local adaptivity for image segmentation and classification. The key idea of our approach is to combine global statistics extracted from the Gaussian mixture model or other proper statistical models with local statistics and geometrical information, such as local probability distribution, orientation, and anisotropy. The combined information is used to design an adaptive local classification strategy that improves the robustness of the algorithm and also keeps fine features in the image. The proposed methodology is flexible and can be easily generalized to deal with other inferred information/quantities and statistical methods/models.

This paper introduces an efficient approach to integrating non-local statistics into the higher-order Markov Random Fields (MRFs) framework. Motivated by the observation that many non-local statistics (eg, shape priors, color distributions) can usually be represented by a small number of parameters, we reformulate the higher-order MRF model by introducing additional latent variables to represent the intrinsic dimensions of the higher-order cliques. The resulting new model, called NC-MRF, not only provides the flexibility in representing the configurations of higher-order cliques, but also automatically decomposes the energy function into less coupled terms, allowing us to design an efficient algorithmic framework for maximum a posteriori (MAP) inference. Based on this novel modeling/inference framework, we achieve state-of-the-art solutions to the challenging problems of class-specific image segmentation and template-based 3D facial expression tracking, which demonstrate the potential of our approach.

We study a system of semilinear hyperbolic equations passively advected by smooth white noise in time random velocity fields. Such a system arises in modelling non-premixed isothermal turbulent flames under single-step kinetics of fuel and oxidizer. We derive closed equations for one-point and multi-point probability distribution functions (PDFs) and closed-form analytical formulae for the one-point PDF function, as well as the two-point PDF function under homogeneity and isotropy. Exact solution formulae allow us to analyse the ensemble-averaged fuel/oxidizer concentrations and the motion of their level curves. We recover the empirical formulae of combustion in the thin reaction zone limit and show that these approximate formulae can either underestimate or overestimate average concentrations when the reaction zone is not tending to zero. We show that the averaged reaction rate slows down locally in

We propose several statistics to test the Markov hypothesis for -mixing stationary processes sampled at discrete time intervals. Our tests are based on the ChapmanKolmogorov equation. We establish the asymptotic null distributions of the proposed test statistics, showing that Wilkss phenomenon holds. We compute the power of the test and provide simulations to investigate the finite sample performance of the test statistics when the null model is a diffusion process, with alternatives consisting of models with a stochastic mean reversion level, stochastic volatility and jumps.