When people in a society want to make inference about some parameter, each person may want to use data collected by other people. Information (data) exchange in social networks is usually costly, so to make reliable statistical decisions, people need to weigh the benefits and costs of information acquisition. Conflicts of interests and coordination problems will arise in the process. Classical statistics does not consider peoples incentives and interactions in the data-collection process. To address this imperfection, this work explores multi-agent Bayesian inference problems with a game theoretic social network model. Motivated by our interest in aggregate inference at the societal level, we propose a new concept, <i>finite population learning</i>, to address whether with high probability, a large fraction of people in a given finite population network can make good inference. Serving as a foundation, this concept enables

Over the last two decades, many exciting variable selection methods have been developed for finding a small group of covariates that are associated with the response from a large pool. Can the discoveries by such data mining approaches be spurious due to high dimensionality and limited sample size? Can our fundamental assumptions on exogeneity of covariates needed for such variable selection be validated with the data? To answer these questions, we need to derive the distributions of the maximum spurious correlations given certain number of predictors, namely, the distribution of the correlation of a response variable Y with the best s linear combinations of p covariates X, even when X and Y are independent. When the covariance matrix of X possesses the restricted eigenvalue property, we derive such distributions for both finite s and diverging s, using Gaussian approximation and empirical process

This paper considers a proportional hazards model, which allows one to examine the extent to which covariates interact nonlinearly with an exposure variable, for analysis of lifetime data. A local partial-likelihood technique is proposed to estimate nonlinear interactions. Asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator is established. The baseline hazard function, the bias and the variance of the local likelihood estimator are consistently estimated. In addition, a one-step local partial-likelihood estimator is presented to facilitate the computation of the proposed procedure and is demonstrated to be as efficient as the fully iterated local partial-likelihood estimator. Furthermore, a penalized local likelihood estimator is proposed to select important risk variables in the model. Numerical examples are used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed procedures.

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We study the estimation of the additive components in additive regression models, based on the weighted sample average of regression surface, for stationary <i></i>-mixing processes. Explicit expression of this method makes possible a fast computation and allows an asymptotic analysis. The estimation procedure is especially useful for additive modeling. In this paper, it is shown that the average surface estimator shares the same optimality as the ideal estimator and has the same ability to estimate the additive component as the ideal case where other components are known. Formulas for the asymptotic bias and normality of the estimator are established. A small simulation study is carried out to illustrate the performance of the estimation and a real example is also used to demonstrate our methodology.