A variable screening procedure via correlation learning was proposed by Fan and Lv (2008) to reduce dimensionality in sparse ultra-high-dimensional models. Even when the true model is linear, the marginal regression can be highly nonlinear. To address this issue, we further extend the correlation learning to marginal nonparametric learning. Our nonparametric independence screening (NIS) is a specific type of sure independence screening. We propose several closely related variable screening procedures. We show that with general nonparametric models, under some mild technical conditions, the proposed independence screening methods have a sure screening property. The extent to which the dimensionality can be reduced by independence screening is also explicitly quantified. As a methodological extension, we also propose a data-driven thresholding and an iterative nonparametric independence

In an effort to capture the time variation on the instantaneous return and volatility functions, a family of time-dependent diffusion processes is introduced to model the term structure dynamics. This allows one to examine how the instantaneous return and price volatility change over time and price level. Nonparametric techniques, based on kernel regression, are used to estimate the time-varying coefficient functions in the drift and diffusion. The newly proposed semiparametric model includes most of the well-known short-term interest rate models, such as those proposed by Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (1985) and Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (1992). It can be used to test the goodness-of-fit of these famous time-homogeneous short rate models. The newly proposed method complements the time-homogeneous nonparametric estimation techniques of Stanton (1997) and Fan and Yao (1998), and is shown through

Several novel large volatility matrix estimation methods have been developed based on the high-frequency financial data. They often employ the approximate factor model that leads to a low-rank plus sparse structure for the integrated volatility matrix and facilitates estimation of large volatility matrices. However, for predicting future volatility matrices, these nonparametric estimators do not have a dynamic structure to implement. In this paper, we introduce a novel It diffusion process based on the approximate factor models and call it a factor GARCH-It model. We then investigate its properties and propose a quasi-maximum likelihood estimation method for the parameter of the factor GARCH-It model. We also apply it to estimating conditional expected large volatility matrices and establish their asymptotic properties. Simulation studies are conducted to validate the finite sample performance of the proposed

We investigate the extension of the nonparametric regression technique of local polynomial fitting with a kernel weight to generalized linear models and quasi-likelihood contexts. In the ordinary regression case, local polynomial fitting has been seen to have several appealing features in terms of intuitive and mathematical simplicity. One noteworthy feature is the better performance near the boundaries compared to the traditional kernel regression estimators. These properties are shown to carry over to generalized linear model and quasi-likelihood settings. We also derive the asymptotic distributions of the proposed class of estimators that allow for straightforward interpretation and extensions of state-of-the-art bandwidth selection methods.

We propose a novel technique to boost the power of testing a highdimensional vector <i>H</i>:<i><b></b></i>=<b>0</b> against sparse alternatives where the null hypothesis is violated by only a few components. Existing tests based on quadratic forms such as the Wald statistic often suffer from low powers due to the accumulation of errors in estimating highdimensional parameters. More powerful tests for sparse alternatives such as thresholding and extreme value tests, on the other hand, require either stringent conditions or bootstrap to derive the null distribution and often suffer from size distortions due to the slow convergence. Based on a screening technique, we introduce a power enhancement component, which is zero under the null hypothesis with high probability, but diverges quickly under sparse alternatives. The proposed test statistic combines the power enhancement component with an asymptotically pivotal statistic, and