Many data mining and statistical machine learning algorithms have been developed to select a subset of covariates to associate with a response variable. Spurious discoveries can easily arise in high-dimensional data analysis due to enormous possibilities of such selections. How can we know statistically our discoveries better than those by chance? In this paper, we define a measure of goodness of spurious fit, which shows how good a response variable can be fitted by an optimally selected subset of covariates under the null model, and propose a simple and effective LAMM algorithm to compute it. It coincides with the maximum spurious correlation for linear models and can be regarded as a generalized maximum spurious correlation. We derive the asymptotic distribution of such goodness of spurious fit for generalized linear models and L1 regression. Such an asymptotic distribution depends on the sample size, ambient dimension, the number of variables used in the fit, and the covariance information. It can be consistently estimated by multiplier bootstrapping and used as a benchmark to guard against spurious discoveries. It can also be applied to model selection, which considers only candidate models with goodness of fits better than those by spurious fits. The theory and method are convincingly illustrated by simulated examples and an application to the binary outcomes from German Neuroblastoma Trials.

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We present a hybrid asymptotic/numerical method for the accurate computation of single- and double-layer heat potentials in two dimensions. It has been shown in previous work that simple quadrature schemes suffer from a phenomenon called “geometrically induced stiffness,” meaning that formally high-order accurate methods require excessively small time steps before the rapid convergence rate is observed. This can be overcome by analytic integration in time, requiring the evaluation of a collection of spatial boundary integral operators with non-physical, weakly singular kernels. In our hybrid scheme, we combine a local asymptotic approximation with the evaluation of a few boundary integral operators involving only Gaussian kernels, which are easily accelerated by a new version of the fast Gauss transform. This new scheme is robust, avoids geometrically induced stiffness, and is easy to use in the presence of moving geometries. Its extension to three dimensions is natural and straightforward, and should permit layer heat potentials to become flexible and powerful tools for modeling diffusion processes.