Data-based detection and quantification of causation in complex, nonlinear dynamical systems is of paramount importance to science, engineering, and beyond. Inspired by the widely used methodology in recent years, the cross-map-based techniques, we develop a general framework to advance towards a comprehensive understanding of dynamical causal mechanisms, which is consistent with the natural interpretation of causality. In particular, instead of measuring the smoothness of the cross-map as conventionally implemented, we define causation through measuring the scaling law for the continuity of the investigated dynamical system directly. The uncovered scaling law enables accurate, reliable, and efficient detection of causation and assessment of its strength in general complex dynamical systems, outperforming those existing representative methods. The continuity scaling-based framework is rigorously established and demonstrated using datasets from model complex systems and the real world.

Omicron, the latest SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern (VOC), first appeared in Africa in November 2021. At present, the question of whether a new VOC will out-compete the currently predominant variant is important for governments seeking to determine if current surveillance strategies and responses are appropriate and reasonable. Based on both virus genomes and daily-confirmed cases, we compare the additive differences in growth rates and reproductive numbers (R_0) between VOCs and their predominant variants through a Bayesian framework and phylo-dynamics analysis. Faced with different variants, we evaluate the effects of current policies and vaccinations against VOCs and predominant variants. The model also predicts the date on which a VOC may become dominant based on simulation and real data in the early stage. The results suggest that the overall additive difference in growth rates of B.1.617.2 and predominant variants was 0.44 (95% confidence interval, 95% CI: −0.38, 1.25) in February 2021, and that the VOC had a relatively high R_0. The additive difference in the growth rate of BA.1 in the United Kingdom was 6.82 times the difference between Delta and Alpha, and the model successfully predicted the dominating process of Alpha, Delta and Omicron. Current vaccination strategies remain similarly effective against Delta compared to the previous variants. Our model proposes a reliable Bayesian framework to predict the spread trends of VOCs based on early-stage data, and evaluates the effects of public health policies, which may help us better prepare for the upcoming Omicron variant, which is now spreading at an unprecedented speed.

A comprehensive description of human genomes is essential for understanding human evolution and relationships between modern populations. However, most published literature focuses on local alignment comparison of several genes rather than the complete evolutionary record of individual genomes. Combining with data from the 1,000 Genomes Project, we successfully reconstructed 2,504 individual genomes and propose Divided Natural Vector method to analyze the distribution of nucleotides in the genomes. Comparisons based on autosomes, sex chromosomes and mitochondrial genomes reveal the genetic relationships between populations, and different inheritance pattern leads to different phylogenetic results. Results based on mitochondrial genomes confirm the “out-of-Africa” hypothesis and assert that humans, at least females, most likely originated in eastern Africa. The reconstructed genomes are stored on our server and can be further used for any genome-scale analysis of humans (http://yaulab.math.tsinghua.edu.cn/2022_1000genomesprojectdata/). This project provides the complete genomes of thousands of individuals and lays the groundwork for genome-level analyses of the genetic relationships between populations and the origin of humans.

Single-cell (sc)RNA-seq, together with RNA velocity and metabolic labeling, reveals cellular states and transitions at unprecedented resolution. Fully exploiting these data, however, requires kinetic models capable of unveiling governing regulatory functions. Here, we introduce an analytical framework dynamo (https://github.com/aristoteleo/dynamo-release), which infers absolute RNA velocity, reconstructs continuous vector fields that predict cell fates, employs differential geometry to extract underlying regulations, and ultimately predicts optimal reprogramming paths and perturbation outcomes. We highlight dynamo’s power to overcome fundamental limitations of conventional splicing-based RNA velocity analyses to enable accurate velocity estimations on a metabolically labeled human hematopoiesis scRNA-seq dataset. Furthermore, differential geometry analyses reveal mechanisms driving early megakaryocyte appearance and elucidate asymmetrical regulation within the PU.1-GATA1 circuit. Leveraging the least-action-path method, dynamo accurately predicts drivers of numerous hematopoietic transitions. Finally, in silico perturbations predict cell-fate diversions induced by gene perturbations. Dynamo, thus, represents an important step in advancing quantitative and predictive theories of cell-state transitions.

Forest above-ground biomass (AGB) can be estimated based on light detection and ranging (LiDAR) point clouds. This paper introduces an accurate and detailed quantitative structure model (AdQSM), which can estimate the AGB of large tropical trees. AdQSM is based on the reconstruction of 3D tree models from terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) point clouds. It represents a tree as a set of closed and complete convex polyhedra. We use AdQSM to model 29 trees of various species (total 18 species) scanned by TLS from three study sites (the dense tropical forests of Peru, Indonesia, and Guyana). The destructively sampled tree geometry measurement data is used as reference values to evaluate the accuracy of diameter at breast height (DBH), tree height, tree volume, branch volume, and AGB estimated from AdQSM. After AdQSM reconstructs the structure and volume of each tree, AGB is derived by combining the wood density of the specific tree species from destructive sampling. The AGB estimation from AdQSM and the post-harvest reference measurement data show a satisfying agreement. The coefficient of variation of root mean square error (CV-RMSE) and the concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) are 20.37% and 0.97, respectively. AdQSM provides accurate tree volume estimation, regardless of the characteristics of the tree structure, without major systematic deviations. We compared the accuracy of AdQSM and TreeQSM in modeling the volume of 29 trees. The tree volume from AdQSM is compared with the reference value, and the determination coefficient (R2), relative bias (rBias), and CV-RMSE of tree volume are 0.96, 6.98%, and 22.62%, respectively. The tree volume from TreeQSM is compared with the reference value, and the R2, relative Bias (rBias), and CV-RMSE of tree volume are 0.94, −9.69%, and 23.20%, respectively. The CCCs between the volume estimates based on AdQSM, TreeQSM, and the reference values are 0.97 and 0.96. AdQSM also models the branches in detail. The volume of branches from AdQSM is compared with the destructive measurement reference data. The R2, rBias, and CV-RMSE of the branches volume are 0.97, 12.38%, and 36.86%, respectively. The DBH and height of the harvested trees were used as reference values to test the accuracy of AdQSM’s estimation of DBH and tree height. The R2, rBias, and CV-RMSE of DBH are 0.94, −5.01%, and 9.06%, respectively. The R2, rBias, and CV-RMSE of the tree height were 0.95, 1.88%, and 5.79%, respectively. This paper provides not only a new QSM method for estimating AGB based on TLS point clouds but also the potential for further development and testing of allometric equations.

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Laser scanning is an effective tool for acquiring geometric attributes of trees and vegetation, which lays a solid foundation for 3-dimensional tree modelling. Existing studies on tree modelling from laser scanning data are vast. However, some works cannot guarantee sufficient modelling accuracy, while some other works are mainly rule-based and therefore highly depend on user inputs. In this paper, we propose a novel method to accurately and automatically reconstruct detailed 3D tree models from laser scans. We first extract an initial tree skeleton from the input point cloud by establishing a minimum spanning tree using the Dijkstra shortest-path algorithm. Then, the initial tree skeleton is pruned by iteratively removing redundant components. After that, an optimization-based approach is performed to fit a sequence of cylinders to approximate the geometry of the tree branches. Experiments on various types of trees from different data sources demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of our method. The overall fitting error (i.e., the distance between the input points and the output model) is less than 10 cm. The reconstructed tree models can be further applied in the precise estimation of tree attributes, urban landscape visualization, etc. The source code of this work is freely available at https://github.com/tudelft3d/adtree

The stochasticity of gene expression is manifested in the fluctuations of mRNA and protein copy numbers within a cell lineage over time. While data of this type can be obtained for many generations, most mathematical models are unsuitable to interpret such data since they assume non-growing cells. Here we develop a theoretical approach that quantitatively links the frequency content of lineage data to subcellular dynamics. We elucidate how the position, height, and width of the peaks in the power spectrum provide a distinctive fingerprint that encodes a wealth of information about mechanisms controlling transcription, translation, replication, degradation, bursting, promoter switching, cell cycle duration, cell division, gene dosage compensation, and cell size homeostasis. Predictions are confirmed by analysis of single-cell Escherichia coli data obtained using fluorescence microscopy. Furthermore, by matching the experimental and theoretical power spectra, we infer the temperature-dependent gene expression parameters, without the need of measurements relating fluorescence intensities to molecule numbers.

Herein we describe new frontiers in mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of oscillatory biomedical signals, motivated by our recent studies of network formation in the human brain during the early stages of life and studies forty years ago on cardiorespiratory patterns during sleep in infants and animal models. The frontiers involve new nonlinear-type time-frequency analysis of signals with multiple oscillatory components, and efficient particle filters for joint state and parameter estimators together with uncertainty quantification in hidden Markov models and empirical Bayes inference.

The interplay between excitatory and inhibitory neurons imparts rich functions of the brain. To understand the synaptic mechanisms underlying neuronal computations, a fundamental approach is to study the dynamics of excitatory and inhibitory synaptic inputs of each neuron. The traditional method of determining input conductance, which has been applied for decades, employs the synaptic current-voltage (I-V) relation obtained via voltage clamp. Due to the space clamp effect, the measured conductance is different from the local conductance on the dendrites. Therefore, the interpretation of the measured conductance remains to be clarified. Using theoretical analysis, electrophysiological experiments, and realistic neuron simulations, here we demonstrate that there does not exist a transform between the local conductance and the conductance measured by the traditional method, due to the neglect of a nonlinear interaction between the clamp current and the synaptic current in the traditional method. Consequently, the conductance determined by the traditional method may not correlate with the local conductance on the dendrites, and its value could be unphysically negative as observed in experiment. To circumvent the challenge of the space clamp effect and elucidate synaptic impact on neuronal information processing, we propose the concept of effective conductance which is proportional to the local conductance on the dendrite and reflects directly the functional influence of synaptic inputs on somatic membrane potential dynamics, and we further develop a framework to determine the effective conductance accurately. Our work suggests re-examination of previous studies involving conductance measurement and provides a reliable approach to assess synaptic influence on neuronal computation.

Complex dendrites in general present formidable challenges to understanding neuronal information processing. To circumvent the difficulty, a prevalent viewpoint simplifies the neuronal morphology as a point representing the soma, and the excitatory and inhibitory synaptic currents originated from the dendrites are treated as linearly summed at the soma. Despite its extensive applications, the validity of the synaptic current description remains unclear, and the existing point neuron framework fails to characterize the spatiotemporal aspects of dendritic integration supporting specific computations. Using electrophysiological experiments, realistic neuronal simulations, and theoretical analyses, we demonstrate that the traditional assumption of linear summation of synaptic currents is oversimplified and underestimates the inhibition effect. We then derive a form of synaptic integration current within the point neuron framework to capture dendritic effects. In the derived form, the interaction between each pair of synaptic inputs on the dendrites can be reliably parameterized by a single coefficient, suggesting the inherent low-dimensional structure of dendritic integration. We further generalize the form of synaptic integration current to capture the spatiotemporal interactions among multiple synaptic inputs and show that a point neuron model with the synaptic integration current incorporated possesses the computational ability of a spatial neuron with dendrites, including direction selectivity, coincidence detection, logical operation, and a bilinear dendritic integration rule discovered in experiment. Our work amends the modeling of synaptic inputs and improves the computational power of a modeling neuron within the point neuron framework.

Spontaneous emergence of cell polarity intrinsically lies at the localization of signaling molecules on a particular region of cell membrane. Such a process necessarily contains a positive feedback loop to amplify the localized cluster. To describe the polarizing process and explore different feedback functions involved, deterministic and stochastic models with non-local kinetics are discussed in this paper. Stochastic Simulation Algorithm (SSA) is used to numerically simulate the polarizing behavior and analytical analysis by the power spectrum is applied to approximate the parameter regime for the spontaneous emergence of cell polarity. Compared to the results from the deterministic model, we can understand how the stochastic effect extends the parameter regime for achieving cell polarization under different types of feedback, including the forms of quadratic function, linear function, and Hill function. Both deterministic and stochastic methods fail to yield the polarity at a low number of molecules. Our results suggest that the parameter region for cell polarization under the Hill function feedback is smaller than that with the quadratic function feedback. ©2021

Budding yeast, which undergoes polarized growth during budding and mating, has been a useful model system to study cell polarization. Bud sites are selected differently in haploid and diploid yeast cells: haploid cells bud in an axial manner, while diploid cells bud in a bipolar manner. While previous studies have been focused on the molecular details of the bud site selection and polarity establishment, not much is known about how different budding patterns give rise to different functions at the population level. In this paper, we develop a two-dimensional agent-based model to study budding yeast colonies with cell-type specific biological processes, such as budding, mating, mating type switch, consumption of nutrients, and cell death. The model demonstrates that the axial budding pattern enhances mating probability at an early stage and the bipolar budding pattern improves colony development under nutrient limitation. Our results suggest that the frequency of mating type switch might control the trade-off between diploidization and inbreeding. The effect of cellular aging is also studied through our model. Based on the simulations, colonies initiated by an aged haploid cell show declined mating probability at an early stage and recover as the rejuvenated offsprings become the majority. Colonies initiated with aged diploid cells do not show disadvantage in colony expansion possibly due to the fact that young cells contribute the most to colony expansion.

Randomness often plays an important role in the spatial and temporal dynamics of biological systems. General stochastic simulation methods may lead to excessive computational cost for a system in which a large number of molecules involved. Therefore, multi-scale hybrid simulation methods become important for stochastic simulations. Here we build a spatially hybrid method which couples two approaches: discrete stochastic simulation and continuous stochastic differential equations. In our method, the locations of the interfaces between the two approaches are changing according to the distribution of molecules in a one-dimensional domain. To balance the accuracy and efficiency, the time step of the numerical method for the continuous stochastic differential equations is adapted to the dynamics of the molecules near the adaptive interfaces. The simulation results for a linear system and two nonlinear biological systems in different one-dimensional domains demonstrate the effectiveness and advantage of our new hybrid method with the adaptive time step control.

High-throughput biological technologies (e.g. ChIPseq, RNA-seq and single-cell RNA-seq) rapidly accelerate the accumulation of genome-wide omics data in diverse interrelated biological scenarios (e.g. cells, tissues and conditions). Integration and differential analysis are two common paradigms for exploring and analyzing such data. However, current integrative methods usually ignore the differential part, and typical differential analysis methods either fail to identify combinatorial patterns of difference or require matched dimensions of the data. Here, we propose a flexible framework CSMF to combine them into one paradigm to simultaneously reveal Common and Specific patterns via Matrix Factorization from data generated under interrelated biological scenarios. We demonstrate the effectiveness of CSMF with four representative applications including pairwise ChIP-seq data describing the chromatin modification map between K562 and Huvec cell lines; pairwise RNA-seq data representing the expression profiles of two different cancers; RNA-seq data of three breast cancer subtypes; and single-cell RNA-seq data of human embryonic stem cell differentiation at six time points. Extensive analysis yields novel insights into hidden combinatorial patterns in these multi-modal data. Results demonstrate that CSMF is a powerful tool to uncover common and specific patterns with significant biological implications from data of interrelated biological scenarios.

Persistent homology is constrained to purely topological persistence, while multiscale graphs account only for geometric information. This work introduces persistent spectral theory to create a unified low-dimensional multiscale paradigm for revealing topological persistence and extracting geometric shapes from high-dimensional datasets. For a point-cloud dataset, a filtration procedure is used to generate a sequence of chain complexes and associated families of simplicial complexes and chains, from which we construct persistent combinatorial Laplacian matrices. We show that a full set of topological persistence can be completely recovered from the harmonic persistent spectra, that is, the spectra that have zero eigenvalues, of the persistent combinatorial Laplacian matrices. However, non-harmonic spectra of the Laplacian matrices induced by the filtration offer another powerful tool for data analysis, modeling, and prediction. In this work, fullerene stability is predicted by using both harmonic spectra and non-harmonic persistent spectra, while the latter spectra are successfully devised to analyze the structure of fullerenes and model protein flexibility, which cannot be straightforwardly extracted from the current persistent homology. The proposed method is found to provide excellent predictions of the protein B-factors for which current popular biophysical models break down.

We present a new Matched Interface and Boundary (MIB) regularization method for treating charge singularity in solvated biomolecules whose electrostatics are described by the Poisson–Boltzmann (PB) equation. In a regularization method, by decomposing the potential function into two or three components, the singular component can be analytically represented by the Green’s function, while other components possess a higher regularity. Our new regularization combines the efficiency of two-component schemes with the accuracy of the three-component schemes. Based on this regularization, a new MIB finite difference algorithm is developed for solving both linear and nonlinear PB equations, where the nonlinearity is handled by using the inexact-Newton’s method. Compared with the existing MIB PB solver based on a three-component regularization, the present algorithm is simpler to implement by circumventing the work to solve a boundary value Poisson equation inside the molecular interface and to compute related interface jump conditions numerically. Moreover, the new MIB algorithm becomes computationally less expensive, while maintains the same second order accuracy. This is numerically verified by calculating the electrostatic potential and solvation energy on the Kirkwood sphere on which the analytical solutions are available and on a series of proteins with various sizes.

Ligand-receptor binding and unbinding are fundamental biomolecular processes and particularly essential to drug efficacy. Environmental water fluctuations, however, impact the corresponding thermodynamics and kinetics and thereby challenge theoretical descriptions. Here, we devise a holistic, implicit-solvent, multi-method approach to predict the (un)binding kinetics for a generic ligand-pocket model. We use the variational implicit-solvent model (VISM) to calculate the solute-solvent interfacial structures and the corresponding free energies, and combine the VISM with the string method to obtain the minimum energy paths and transition states between the various metastable (“dry” and “wet”) hydration states. The resulting dry-wet transition rates are then used in a spatially-dependent multi-state continuous-time Markov chain Brownian dynamics simulations, and the related Fokker–Planck equation calculations, of the ligand stochastic motion, providing the mean first-passage times for binding and unbinding. We find the hydration transitions to significantly slow down the binding process, in semi-quantitative agreement with existing explicit-water simulations, but significantly accelerate the unbinding process. Moreover, our methods allow the characterization of non-equilibrium hydration states of pocket and ligand during the ligand movement, for which we find substantial memory and hysteresis effects for binding versus unbinding. Our study thus provides a significant step forward towards efficient, physics-based interpretation and predictions of the complex kinetics in realistic ligand-receptor systems.

Many cellular processes are governed by stochastic reaction events. These events do not necessarily occur in single steps of individual molecules, and, conversely, each birth or death of a macromolecule (e.g., protein) could involve several small reaction steps, creating a memory between individual events and thus leading to nonmarkovian reaction kinetics. Characterizing this kinetics is challenging. Here, we develop a systematic approach for a general reaction network with arbitrary intrinsic waiting-time distributions, which includes the stationary generalized chemical-master equation (sgCME), the stationary generalized Fokker–Planck equation, and the generalized linear-noise approximation. The first formulation converts a nonmarkovian issue into a markovian one by introducing effective transition rates (that explicitly decode the effect of molecular memory) for the reactions in an equivalent reaction network with the same substrates but without molecular memory. Nonmarkovian features of the reaction kinetics can be revealed by solving the sgCME. The latter 2 formulations can be used in the fast evaluation of fluctuations. These formulations can have broad applications, and, in particular, they may help us discover new biological knowledge underlying memory effects. When they are applied to generalized stochastic models of gene-expression regulation, we find that molecular memory is in effect equivalent to a feedback and can induce bimodality, fine-tune the expression noise, and induce switch.

Multistep cell fate transitions with stepwise changes of transcriptional profiles are common to many developmental, regenerative and pathological processes. The multiple intermediate cell lineage states can serve as differentiation checkpoints or branching points for channeling cells to more than one lineages. However, mechanisms underlying these transitions remain elusive. Here, we explored gene regulatory circuits that can generate multiple intermediate cellular states with stepwise modulations of transcription factors. With unbiased searching in the network topology space, we found a motif family containing a large set of networks can give rise to four attractors with the stepwise regulations of transcription factors, which limit the reversibility of three consecutive steps of the lineage transition. We found that there is an enrichment of these motifs in a transcriptional network controlling the early T cell development, and a mathematical model based on this network recapitulates multistep transitions in the early T cell lineage commitment. By calculating the energy landscape and minimum action paths for the T cell model, we quantified the stochastic dynamics of the critical factors in response to the differentiation signal with fluctuations. These results are in good agreement with experimental observations and they suggest the stable characteristics of the intermediate states in the T cell differentiation. These dynamical features may help to direct the cells to correct lineages during development. Our findings provide general design principles for multistep cell linage transitions and new insights into the early T cell development. The network motifs containing a large family of topologies can be useful for analyzing diverse biological systems with multistep transitions.

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HIV-1 is the most common and pathogenic strain of human immunodeficiency virus consisting of many subtypes. To study the difference among HIV-1 subtypes in infection, diagnosis and drug design, it is important to identify HIV-1 subtypes from clinical HIV-1 samples. In this work, we propose an effective numeric representation called Subsequence Natural Vector (SNV) to encode HIV-1 sequences. Using the representation, we introduce an improved linear discriminant analysis method to classify HIV-1 viruses correctly. SNV is based on distribution of nucleotides in HIV-1 viral sequences. It not only computes the number of nucleotides, but also describes the position and variance of nucleotides in viruses. To validate our alignment-free method, 6902 complete genomes and 11,668 pol gene sequences of HIV-1 subtypes were collected from the up-to-date Los Alamos HIV database. SNV outperforms the three popular methods, Kameris, Comet and REGA, with almost 100% Sensitivity and Specificity, also with much less time. Our subtyping algorithm especially works better for circulating recombinant forms (CRFs) consisting of a few sequences. Our approach is also powerful to separate unique recombinant forms (URFs) from other subtypes with 100% Sensitivity and Specificity. Moreover, phylogenetic trees based on SNV representation are constructed using full-length HIV-1 genomes and pol genes respectively, where viruses from the same subtype are clustered together correctly.

Cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) has recently emerged as a powerful tool for obtaining three-dimensional (3D) structures of biological macromolecules in native states. A minimum cryo-EM image data set for deriving a meaningful reconstruction is comprised of thousands of randomly orientated projections of identical particles photographed with a small number of electrons. The computation of 3D structure from 2D projections requires clustering, which aims to enhance the signal to noise ratio in each view by grouping similarly oriented images. Nevertheless, the prevailing clustering techniques are often compromised by three characteristics of cryo-EM data: high noise content, high dimensionality and large number of clusters. Moreover, since clustering requires registering images of similar orientation into the same pixel coordinates by 2D alignment, it is desired that the clustering algorithm can label misaligned images as outliers. Herein, we introduce a clustering algorithm γ-SUP to model the data with a q-Gaussian mixture and adopt the minimum γ-divergence for estimation, and then use a self-updating procedure to obtain the numerical solution. We apply γ-SUP to the cryo-EM images of two benchmark macromolecules, RNA polymerase II and ribosome. In the former case, simulated images were chosen to decouple clustering from alignment to demonstrate γ-SUP is more robust to misalignment outliers than the existing clustering methods used in the cryo-EM community. In the latter case, the clustering of real cryo-EM data by our γ-SUP method eliminates noise in many views to reveal true structure features of ribosome at the projection level.

Classification of DNA sequences is an important issue in the bioinformatics study, yet most existing methods for phylogenetic analysis including Multiple Sequence Alignment (MSA) are time-consuming and computationally expensive. The alignment-free methods are popular nowadays, whereas the manual intervention in those methods usually decreases the accuracy. Also, the interactions among nucleotides are neglected in most methods. Here we propose a new Accumulated Natural Vector (ANV) method which represents each DNA sequence by a point in R18. By calculating the Accumulated Indicator Functions of nucleotides, we can further find an Accumulated Natural Vector for each sequence. This new Accumulated Natural Vector not only can capture the distribution of each nucleotide, but also provide the covariance among nucleotides. Thus global comparison of DNA sequences or genomes can be done easily in R18. The tests of ANV of datasets of different sizes and types have proved the accuracy and time-efficiency of the new proposed ANV method.

Genome comparison is a vital research area of bioinformatics. For large-scale genome comparisons, the Multiple Sequence Alignment (MSA) methods have been impractical to use due to its algorithmic complexity. In this study, we propose a novel alignment-free method based on the one-to-one correspondence between a DNA sequence and its complete central moment vector of the cumulative Fourier power and phase spectra. In addition, the covariance between the four nucleotides in the power and phase spectra is included. We use the cumulative Fourier power and phase spectra to define a 28-dimensional vector for each DNA sequence. Euclidean distances between the vectors can measure the dissimilarity between DNA sequences. We perform testing with datasets of different sizes and types including simulated DNA sequences, exon-intron and complete genomes. The results show that our method is more accurate and efficient for performing hierarchical clustering than other alignment-free methods and MSA methods.